Ahead of the scheduled Sept. 24 Trump-Xi summit at the White House, China has broadened coast guard patrols and checks from waters near Kinmen off China’s coast to open waters east of Taiwan, while the Trump administration has downplayed China’s intensifying gray-zone tactics as “routine activities” in a move to appease Chinese leader Xi Jinping ahead of their meeting.
Since June, China’s coast guard has intercepted nearly 200 commercial ships passing Taiwan’s east coast. While the increase in patrols around Taiwan-administered islands in the Taiwan Strait is already disturbing, US dismissal of China’s “law enforcement” patrols east of Taiwan, in international waters of the western Pacific, will only further enable Beijing to expand its baseless territorial and legal claims.
From the Persian Gulf to the Taiwan Strait, the US has traditionally been a guarantor of freedom of navigation. Since the end of World War II, US armed forces have actively protected global trade lanes, ensuring the free flow of goods under international law.
Following Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, the reliability of US naval commitments has faced intense scrutiny from allies and partners as Washington pivots toward a more transactional foreign policy.
On the other side of the globe, Trump has also allowed similar tactics by Iran around the Strait of Hormuz. This has allowed the totalitarian regime in Tehran to patrol critical Middle Eastern waterways, resulting in economic shockwaves for traditional US allies thousands of miles away.
Iranian patrols aimed at asserting Tehran’s “legal” claims have halted vital energy shipments to import-dependent Japan and South Korea. Trump’s inaction has sown doubt over US support for such staunch traditional allies, leaving room for exploitation by authoritarian regimes such as China, Russia, and Iran.
Normalizing coercion
As Trump yields to authoritarian leaders by dismissing a new wave of hostile naval action carried out in the name of “law enforcement,” he gives such regimes a green light to create a new normal of intruding upon and controlling other states’ sovereign territory while deepening public mistrust toward the US.
Although turning a blind eye to such aggression could help Trump gain short-term trade concessions, such complacency is detrimental to long-term US national interests and trade security.
China is exploiting this inaction by turning military drills into permanent unilateral “law enforcement” patrols in Taiwan’s eastern exclusive economic zone. Continued US passivity could help authoritarian actors such as China and Iran expand territorial claims by asserting administrative jurisdiction in international waters.
In Taiwan, this bolsters Beijing’s false, defeatist narrative. Routine and permanent coercion could signal to Taiwanese that Beijing can readily blockade the nation, while fueling distrust of the government by suggesting it has conceded maritime sovereignty.
Given that Taiwan is already “ground zero” for Chinese disinformation campaigns, US inaction provides ready-made ammunition for fueling skepticism among voters about US commitment and reliability in Taiwan’s defense.
Pro-China politicians have been selling the “US abandonment” narrative for decades. Such inaction will only prove their point.
It could create a vacuum for Chinese proxies and propel China-friendly political parties to electoral victories, weaken Taiwan’s deterrence and resolve in defending national sovereignty, and eventually push Taiwan’s government to concede to Chinese demands.
Make no mistake: China’s eventual end game is to effectively annex and control Taiwan.
Energy vulnerability
Beyond the political consequences, US passivity toward Chinese coast guard “lawfare” encroachments on Taiwan’s eastern flank creates deep economic vulnerabilities for Taiwan and its trade partners.
With more than 90% of the world’s advanced chips produced in Taiwan, an energy crisis here could significantly disrupt almost every corner of the globe.
Taiwan relies heavily on foreign energy imports, with a hyper-vulnerable safety margin of seven to 10 days of liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserves.
A sudden conversion of routine Chinese patrols into an energy blockade could delay, divert, or turn back LNG carriers without an armed invasion. This could grind Taiwan’s manufacturing to a halt through nationwide power grid disruption in little more than a week.
Taiwan’s defense capabilities would face severe disruption, while global semiconductor production could also grind to a halt. The immediate economic paralysis would not only affect Taiwan, but directly harm US national and economic interests.
It is imperative that Trump consider the near-term implications of his silence rather than prioritize short-term gains ahead of his meeting with Xi.
Regional fallout
Beyond Taiwan, Trump is also handing China free propaganda in other Pacific theaters.
On Aug. 16, Trump ordered a sudden and substantial reduction of joint US-South Korea military exercises. The order came the night before the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield joint drills were to begin.
Similar to his attempts to build rapport with Xi, Trump cited preserving a “very good relationship” with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as one of his reasons for the cut.
The reduction shortened Ulchi Freedom Shield to just five days, eliminating critical live-fire field exercises that synchronize modern warfare involving drones, GPS disruption, and coordinated cyber warfare — all areas in which China is rapidly building capabilities.
Trump even canceled scheduled large-scale September joint drills with South Korea.
Military analysts have raised alarms over these sudden reductions. They have also generated concerns in Japan, the US’ staunchest Pacific ally.
Critics have warned that the reductions could erode readiness at a time when authoritarian actors in North Korea and China are expanding their offensive capabilities beyond their borders.
As Taiwanese voters take note of US inaction and reduced US security support, all eyes will be on what Trump discusses with Xi at the White House in late September.
Chinese disinformation campaigns have already hyped the US “retreat” narrative around Trump’s delay on arms sales to Taiwan. Regardless of the actual impact on the region’s security balance, US passivity will only exacerbate that narrative.
Although overall US support for Taiwan appears unchanged, any Trump concessions to Xi at the White House summit will have far-reaching global implications.
Rath Wang is a political commentator based in Taipei focusing on Taiwan’s politics, media, civil society, and key issues influencing Taiwan’s future. He is a media producer and host of current affairs talk shows and podcasts, and has worked on political campaigns and lived in Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, and the US.
