TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan is likely to experience above-normal temperatures in autumn and winter as a strengthening El Nino pattern continues, according to a Central Weather Administration press conference on Wednesday.
As El Nino continues to develop, it has created an active typhoon season, with CWA Weather Forecast Center Director Huang Chun-hsi (黃椿喜) noting 14 typhoons or tropical storms formed in the Northwest Pacific in July and August. The figure was significantly above the climatological average of 9.3 over the same period, and tied a record set in 1967, 1994, 1996, and 2018, per CNA.
In June, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific exceeded the average by more than 0.5 C. This led NOAA to conclude there was a 63% chance of an extreme or super El Nino between November and January 2027, per PTS.
Taiwan was also relatively warm during July and August, with an average temperature of 28.9 C, 0.1 C above the climatological average — but still within the normal range. Rainfall, however, was considerably higher than normal.
Accumulated rainfall reached 754.7 millimeters, about 20% above the climatological average. A weather station in Tainan recorded its second-highest August rainfall for the period, while a station in Kaohsiung recorded its highest August rainfall since being relocated in January 2022.
Huang said 10 to 12 typhoons normally form in the northwest Pacific from September through November. He expected a similar number of typhoons to form in this period, but the number passing near Taiwan may be below normal, per CNA.
He attributed this to an anticyclonic circulation around Taiwan, steering typhoons westward or turning them northeastward. Despite the lower probability, historical data indicates that Taiwan is still affected by an average of one to two typhoons each autumn, Huang said.
The CWA added that the warming trend could continue through spring, with the agency also expecting more rainfall early next year.
