TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — US weapons shortages caused by the war with Iran are raising concerns among Taiwan and US allies in Asia about Washington’s ability to maintain its deterrence posture against China.
The massive expenditure of US munitions in the Middle East has depleted stockpiles and redirected military resources that could be critical in a potential war with China, per The Washington Post. The concerns come as Beijing continues to increase military pressure around Taiwan and Washington reduces some military activities in Asia.
On Aug. 16, President Donald Trump announced a reduction in joint military exercises with South Korea, citing costs, South Korea’s refusal to assist the US war effort against Iran, and his relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, per Reuters. On Monday, the Pentagon canceled a joint amphibious landing exercise in South Korea scheduled for September, citing demands on US forces from the war in Iran, per The Hill.
South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan all rely heavily on Washington for major conventional weapons and face lengthy delivery backlogs. The Iran war has added pressure by consuming and reallocating resources needed for other contingencies, according to the Post.
Taiwan has nearly NT$965.5 billion (US$30 billion) in US weapons approved for sale but not yet delivered, including NT$28.4 billion in Patriot missiles, the Taiwan Security Monitor reported. The backlog includes other major systems such as HIMARS launchers and munitions.
Taiwanese defense officials told the Legislative Yuan in March that they still expected 102 Patriot missiles to be delivered this year. However, a Taiwanese official told the Post that deliveries of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptors are expected to be significantly delayed because the Pentagon has depleted much of its interceptor stockpile in the Middle East.
Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Washington-based Defense Priorities, told the Post that Taiwan is unlikely to receive the full order of about 100 missiles soon. She said Washington’s first priority would likely be replenishing its own stockpiles, followed by refilling supplies for Gulf Arab allies while the war with Iran continues.
Japan is facing similar concerns over US weapons deliveries. The Financial Times reported in May that deliveries of 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles to Japan could be delayed by as much as two years.
The diversion of US forces to the Middle East has also frustrated officials responsible for military operations in the Indo-Pacific, according to three sources. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Post that CSIS war games conducted since 2023 found that defending Taiwan against an invasion would likely exceed current Pentagon supply plans, with many critical weapons exhausted within weeks.
Trump also described arms sales to Taiwan in May as a “good negotiating chip” with China, while a roughly NT$450.8 billion arms package for Taiwan was put on hold ahead of his summit with Xi in Beijing. The Post cited a Chinese official as warning that any signal from the White House approving new arms sales to Taiwan would seriously undermine prospects for further visits between the two leaders this year.
US intelligence officials say Xi has directed the Chinese military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027, although current assessments indicate that China’s leadership does not have imminent plans to launch an invasion. The 2027 deadline nonetheless highlights what analysts and officials describe as a vulnerability in US munitions stocks as Washington replenishes weapons consumed in the Middle East.
