TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Former UK diplomat and Royal United Services Institute associate fellow Charlie Parton expressed doubt that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would happen in an interview published Saturday.
Before even launching an attack, Chinese leader Xi Jinping would have to amass troops and equipment, which would be a “pretty clear warning,” Parton told The Sun. “This would give time for the Americans and others to reinforce and make it even more difficult for China,” he said.
China would then have to move assets across the Taiwan Strait to a handful of beaches suitable for an amphibious landing. “You’ve only got about 13 beaches where you could land on, and of course, you’d send in airborne troops, but they’re at great risk of being shot out of the sky, particularly as drone technology increases,” Parton said.
“So, if the Taiwanese have prepared properly, it would be extremely difficult to invade, and the chances are that you wouldn’t succeed.”
Blockading Taiwan would also be challenging, the former diplomat said. Cutting off the Taiwan Strait would sever links to Africa, Europe and the Middle East, and in turn, cause a global economic meltdown, Parton said. China would feel the effects of its own blockade and see mass domestic unemployment, he said.
“If the Chinese economy is not sufficiently self-reliant, self-contained to weather that storm, then there would be an inevitable plummet in its economic performance,” Parton said.
Even if an invasion were successful, it would be a challenge to gain control because Taiwanese troops would conduct guerrilla warfare.
“The one thing that Xi is not going to do is take a risk of falling from power because that’s really dangerous,” Parton said. “So, I think it’s much more likely that they will continue to put other forms of pressure on Taiwan and its people to try and convince them that unification is irresistible and inevitable,” he said.
He added that another factor affecting Xi’s decision to attack would be whether the US can assist Taiwan on time.
“Until those conditions are met, it’s fair to conclude that forceful ways of getting hold of Taiwan are on the back burner,” he said.
