Increased security cooperation between Taiwan’s most important neighbors is generally welcomed in Taipei, but Taiwan’s mixed response to Japan-Philippines maritime boundary talks could prove a missed opportunity.
Taiwan’s voice is critical in such negotiations. It directly faces Chinese aggression and coercion, a common threat to all three countries, and sits between Japan and the Philippines.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae held a joint press conference at the end of May during Marcos’ state visit to Tokyo, announcing the start of negotiations to delimit their countries’ overlapping exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.
This is critical for Taipei because Japanese and Philippine maritime claims run close to waters claimed by Taiwan. The Bashi Channel, a key waterway between Taiwan and the Philippines, would also be central to allied support and reinforcement routes in a Taiwan contingency.
These discussions come as Japan and the Philippines have elevated their bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, a level of cooperation aimed at addressing growing regional challenges stemming from Chinese geopolitical and economic coercion.
This is precisely why Taiwan cannot be left out. Taiwan not only shares the same challenges, but occupies the geostrategic location that binds Japan and the Philippines together.
Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines are three key players in the first island chain, a line central to US and allied defense planning in maintaining peace and prosperity for democratic nations in the Indo-Pacific.
While Taiwanese officials have responded largely positively to the Japan-Philippines talks, much work remains on how Taiwan can be integrated into such discussions. Taiwan is a critical piece in creating a win-win situation for all members of the first island chain and achieving the crucial goal of keeping China’s regional hegemonic ambitions at bay.
President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) has commended the talks on several occasions, most recently in June, when he addressed domestic concerns over how the bilateral EEZ discussions could affect Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Lai said that under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, a third country’s rights would not be affected by bilateral negotiations. He then shifted the focus to condemning China, saying Beijing’s claims to those waters are invalid and stressing that countries in the region face China’s gray-zone tactics.
Lai ended his comments by calling for “collective defense and burden-sharing.” This is an area where all three countries can work together, as they face various forms of coercion and disinformation from the same actor.
However, it remains unclear how Taiwan will integrate itself into such discussions.
Other high-level Cabinet officials, including Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) and Defense Minister Wellington Koo (顧立雄), have echoed a similar response, praising the Japan-Philippines talks and condemning China while stopping short of explaining how Taiwan will take part in such negotiations.
Meanwhile, Beijing has already taken advantage of the talks. One of China’s favorite tools is lawfare, which it uses to coerce neighbors and create new facts around disputed waters.
About a week after the announcement, the China Coast Guard sent a task group of cutters and patrol vessels into waters east of Taiwan under the banner of “law enforcement” patrols. Chinese government vessels have long crisscrossed the Taiwan Strait, but Beijing is now exploiting the talks as a pretext to create a new norm of patrolling Taiwan’s eastern coast.
This is an escalation and provocation by China. It directly challenges Taiwan’s sovereignty, warns Japan and the Philippines to stay out of any potential conflict, and advances Beijing’s false claims over other countries’ waters.
Fortunately, China’s lawfare campaign has been met with strong public backlash.
Beyond its unfounded claims over waters around Taiwan, China has also advanced claims involving the Batanes Islands. Weeks after Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Jing Quan visited Batanes, Chinese scholars claimed the islands are a natural extension of Taiwan and therefore Chinese territory.
The Batanes Islands are the Philippines’ northernmost province, about 160 km south of Taiwan along the strategically important Luzon Strait. They are also a strategic location for Philippine and US forces in any Taiwan contingency.
The Chinese claim triggered strong pushback from Philippine officials and the public. Online memes mocked Beijing’s ethnic and historical arguments, with some reversing the logic by joking that parts of China could be claimed by the Philippines because Filipinos and Indigenous Taiwanese share Austronesian heritage.
Public opinion in the Philippines and Japan has grown increasingly wary of China and its encroachments on their countries’ sovereignty. Voters in both countries have given Marcos and Takaichi a mandate to strengthen defense and push back against Chinese expansionism.
This presents an opportunity for Taiwan to make its case more forcefully. The essence of the EEZ talks between Tokyo and Manila is to counter Beijing’s increasingly belligerent actions.
Taiwan is China’s top target for expansion and coercion. It also shares maritime space with Japan, the Philippines, and China. Bypassing such a vital stakeholder could leave out critical countermeasures against the aggressor that all three countries could build together.
Although the Taiwanese government has largely lauded the Japan-Philippines talks, it should also actively advocate for trilateral talks and the establishment of a formal framework. If official diplomatic channels complicate the process, such engagement could be conducted through each country’s representative offices.
Another countermeasure would be to elevate Taiwan’s fisheries agreements with Japan and the Philippines into broader resource and maritime security arrangements. EEZ rights and cooperation could be expanded to cover critical minerals, oil and gas, subsea cables, and even military and coast guard coordination.
This would help collectively secure the waters critical to credible deterrence and allow Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines to jointly keep Chinese maritime ambitions at bay.
Rath Wang is a political commentator based in Taipei focusing on Taiwan’s politics, media, civil society, and key issues influencing Taiwan’s future. He is a media producer and host of current affairs talk shows and podcasts, and has worked on political campaigns and lived in Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, and the US.
