TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Academia Sinica on Monday raised its forecast for Taiwan's 2026 economic growth to 10.16%.
The revised forecast is 6.45 percentage points higher than the institute's previous estimate, per UDN. It is also the highest 2026 GDP forecast among Taiwan's major economic think tanks.
Lin Chang-ching (林常青), a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of Economics, said tariff uncertainty had prompted a cautious outlook late last year. He said easing trade risks and strong AI demand have improved the growth outlook by driving productivity and infrastructure investment.
The institute forecasts that domestic demand and net external demand will contribute 5.03 and 5.13 percentage points to GDP growth this year. It also projects quarterly growth of 14.55%, 8.75%, 10.9%, and 7.01% from the first through fourth quarters.
Academia Sinica forecasts that exports and imports of goods and services will grow by 23.02% and 21.91% in 2026, while private investment will rise by 9.79%, per Mirror Media. The institute said strong demand for advanced chips and server supply chains has boosted domestic investment.
The institute forecasts private consumption will grow 3.6% this year, supported by a stable job market and rising corporate profits. Lin said record stock market highs have created a wealth effect that boosted household disposable income and consumer confidence, while continued travel demand has also supported spending.
Lin said AI-related industries and semiconductor packaging and testing are outperforming traditional sectors such as basic metals, chemicals, and cement. He said this does not represent a "K-shaped economy," in which one sector of society thrives while the other declines, but rather reflects different growth rates across industries.
He added that concerns over a slowdown in AI capital spending, which could weaken Taiwan's economic growth, are unlikely to materialize this year, per CNA. He said the risk could become more pronounced in 2027 or 2028.
However, Lin said policymakers should prepare for challenges posed by the AI boom, including productivity gaps, electricity supply, cybersecurity, and talent shortages, to ensure that supporting infrastructure keeps pace.
