TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China may try to pressure Taiwan into accepting Beijing’s terms without going to war by weakening US support for Taipei, two foreign policy scholars warned in a Foreign Affairs article Monday.
In “China Could Win Taiwan Without Fighting,” Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, argued that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is trying to use US President Donald Trump’s uncertain stance on Taiwan to push Washington away from Taipei.
Haass and Sacks said Xi still sees Taiwan as a core issue for China and wants to make progress toward bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control during his time in power. They said Beijing would prefer to do this without going to war because a conflict would bring serious military, political, and economic risks.
The scholars said Xi appears to believe Trump may be willing to change long-standing US policy toward Taiwan. They cited Trump’s criticism of Taiwan, his claim that Taiwan took the US chip industry, and his decision to pause a planned arms sale to Taipei.
The scholars said China is trying to create a “new normal” in which Washington treats Taiwan as a bargaining issue with Beijing. They said this could include US leaders warning Taiwan against formally declaring independence or consulting China before selling arms to Taipei.
Such moves would damage trust in the US among Taiwanese, Haass and Sacks said. If many Taiwanese begin to believe Washington is no longer reliable, they said, Beijing may find it easier to pressure Taiwan into accepting China’s terms.
The scholars said delays in US arms sales could also hurt Taiwan’s defense planning. They said Taiwanese politicians may find it harder to support higher defense spending if they doubt the US will help Taiwan defend itself.
The article said the effect would not stop at Taiwan. Haass and Sacks said Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and other US partners may also question Washington’s security commitments if US support for Taiwan weakens.
They said this could shift power in Asia toward China. Some countries may build up their own militaries, while others may decide they have little choice but to accommodate Beijing, the scholars said.
Haass and Sacks said Taiwan is important to the US because of its location along the first island chain, which runs from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines. If China controlled Taiwan, they said, Beijing could more easily project military power into the Pacific and pressure US allies.
The scholars also said Taiwan is central to the global economy because of its role in advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence supply chains. They warned that a conflict over Taiwan would cause severe damage to the world economy.
Haass and Sacks said Washington should approve arms sales to Taiwan and help Taiwan build its own defense industry. They also said the US should make clear it supports peace in the Taiwan Strait, does not support Taiwan formally declaring independence, and backs any cross-strait settlement accepted by Taiwanese.
The scholars said the US has deterred Chinese military action against Taiwan for decades. They said the best way to prevent war or a Chinese takeover is to make sure Beijing does not doubt Washington’s commitment to Taiwan.
