TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Taiwan Research Institute on Tuesday raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 9.33%, while warning that Taiwan’s AI-driven expansion is increasingly dependent on a small number of key industries.
CNA reported that the institute had forecast 3.46% growth late last year. The institute said the sharp increase reflects strong global demand for artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, cloud data centers, semiconductors, and information and communications technology products.
The institute said Taiwan has become a major beneficiary of the global AI boom because of its strong semiconductor and electronics supply chains. It described the trend as a rare growth opportunity for Taiwan.
Exports are expected to be the main driver of growth in 2026. The institute forecast real exports of goods and services to grow 19.62%, while real imports of goods and services are expected to rise 16.34%.
Private investment is also expected to support growth. The institute said companies are expanding production in advanced chipmaking, advanced packaging, AI servers, and related supply chains, pushing estimated real private investment growth to 6.16%.
The institute said Taiwan’s economy is entering a positive cycle, with AI demand boosting exports, exports encouraging investment, and higher investment and income supporting consumption.
However, the institute warned that the growth outlook also carries risks. It said Taiwan’s economy is becoming more dependent on semiconductors and communications technology, meaning any downturn in the technology sector could have a larger impact than in the past, per UDN.
The institute said global markets are highly optimistic about future profits from AI. This has pushed up technology stocks, business investment, and capital spending by major companies.
If AI business applications grow more slowly than expected, or if large technology companies become more cautious with spending, demand for Taiwan’s supply chain could weaken. The institute said this could affect both exports and private investment.
The institute also pointed to wider global risks, including US-China technology competition, tariff changes, and supply chain shifts. It said tensions in the Middle East could affect oil prices, shipping costs, and inflation.
The institute said Taiwan must reduce the risk of overreliance on a small number of industries. It said stronger domestic demand, a more balanced industrial structure, and greater economic resilience will be important for long-term growth.
