TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Support for cross-strait political talks in Taiwan has declined in recent years, according to a long-running poll released Monday.
The survey, conducted by the Taoyuan National Development Education Foundation and National Taiwan University’s Center for China Studies, compiled nine rounds of polling since 2015, per My Formosa. It found that average support for negotiations was 71.7% over the past decade, but fell to 61.6% this year, a record low.
Foundation researcher Kelly Yang (楊喜慧) said support peaked in 2018, driven by China’s strong economic growth at the time. She said the subsequent economic slowdown in China and stable growth in Taiwan have shifted public attitudes on negotiations.
Regarding preferred outcomes, 44.3% of respondents favored maintaining the status quo, the highest share, reported My Formosa. This was followed by 27% supporting “Beijing recognizing Taiwan as a country and establishing diplomatic relations.”
Another 15.9% favored recognizing Taiwan as a country with peaceful non-aggression and no diplomatic ties. Only 3.2% supported unification, while 4.1% favored an integration model.
Tamkang University’s Center for Cross-Strait Relations Director Anson Hung (洪耀南) said the trend shows Taiwanese preferences are not shifting toward unification but toward maintaining peace and autonomy, according to My Formosa. He said public sentiment is closer to “hostile coexistence” or peaceful coexistence than to political integration.
The survey found 58% rejected Beijing’s “one China principle” as a precondition for negotiations, while 25.8% accepted it. On timing, 31.5% said talks should begin as soon as possible, 29.4% preferred delaying talks, and 18.4% said timing depends on circumstances, a record high.
Hung said this reflects growing uncertainty over cross-strait relations. He said the public is not opposed to talks but wants greater flexibility while prioritizing peace, security, and democracy.
Robert Tsai (蔡季廷), director of National Taiwan University’s Center for China Studies, said the results show a gap between Taiwanese expectations and China’s negotiation framework. He said Taiwan seeks agency and security, while Beijing emphasizes the “one China principle,” reflecting fundamentally different goals.
Tsai added that although the DPP and KMT may support dialogue, meaningful progress remains difficult under current political realities and public sentiment.
