TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan has an opportunity over the next five years to reposition itself amid a changing world order as countries such as Japan, Australia, India, and ASEAN members expand partnerships in response to concerns over Chinese aggression, Vanguard Journal policy editor-in-chief Nouroz Khan Bijarani said recently.
In a Global Taiwan opinion article published May 21, Bijarani said there are three possible trajectories for the Indo-Pacific region.
The first possibility is continued escalation, which would lead to more militarization in the region, Bijarani said. If China achieved its goal of military readiness for a Taiwan Strait conflict by 2027, it would trigger an arms race as middle powers moved to bolster their own defenses.
There would be a focus on hypersonic missiles and artificial intelligence technologies, he said.
A Taiwan Strait conflict would disrupt global trade and cause ASEAN nations to side with China or Taiwan and the US, he added.
Another scenario would see “managed competition” through multilateral organizations and partnerships, such as the Quad and AUKUS, Bijarani said. “Initiatives to foster ‘non-red’ supply chains would reduce countries’ vulnerabilities to (Chinese) coercion,” he said.
Under this trajectory, Taiwan would play a key role in global technology partnerships, even as reduced trade with China puts pressure on its economy, he said.
The final possibility would be de-escalation, although it is unlikely, Bijarani said. “A possible truce between the United States and (China) could place limits on armament,” he said. “Demographic shifts could have a restraining impact on militarization by 2030, leading to dialogues on common imperatives,” he added.
Meanwhile, Bijarani said there are four strategic areas Taiwan should focus on: semiconductor collaboration, maritime domain awareness, non-red supply chains, and mining cooperation. “Through these pathways, Taipei can integrate itself into polycentric Indo-Pacific networks to strengthen deterrence and economic stability,” he said.
To enhance semiconductor cooperation, Taiwan can build upon existing platforms such as the Chip 4 Alliance. “Taiwan’s engagement with allied working groups on artificial intelligence and cybersecurity broadens the scope of its role beyond hardware and into digital governance,” he said.
He also pointed to cooperation between Taiwan and India in semiconductor training and intellectual property, which “aim to strengthen workforce resilience through skills development and diversification of talent pipelines.”
Bijarani said maritime domain awareness partnerships provide Taiwan with better intelligence on Chinese gray-zone activities. Taiwan has engaged in limited coast guard and security dialogues with some regional nations, he said, which “indicate emerging, indirect functional linkages rather than formal operational cooperation.”
He suggested that Taiwan could work with other nations to help Vietnam develop its coastal radar network.
Additionally, improved satellite capabilities allow Taiwan to share data with regional partners, especially in maritime security, climate monitoring, and disaster relief, he said.
Bijarani said Taiwan must build supply chains that rely less on China to protect its economic and political independence. Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy helps achieve this by expanding cooperation with countries like India, Australia, and Southeast Asian nations, he said.
These partnerships also help Taiwan reduce the risk of economic pressure or disruptions from China.
Cooperation on critical minerals helps strengthen Taiwan’s long-term industrial security, Bijarani said. He noted that Taiwan is working with India and Australia on supplies of rare earths, lithium, and battery materials, while also diversifying through countries like Indonesia.
These efforts connect Taiwan more closely with the US-led Mineral Security Partnership, he said. By focusing on environmentally sustainable processing and higher standards, Taiwan can also distinguish itself from China-dominated supply chains, he added.
Taiwan needs “agile policies to build resilience and enhance deterrence,” Bijarani said.
