TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China is unlikely to launch a near-term attack on Taiwan because Beijing believes time is working in its favor, according to an analysis published in Foreign Affairs on Friday.
In “Why China Waits,” Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie Glaser wrote that Beijing wants to bring Taiwan under its control at the lowest possible cost. Chinese leaders appear to believe China’s growing military and economic power could pressure Taiwan into giving in without a full invasion, they said.
“China has not ruled out the use of force,” Hsiao and Glaser wrote. They said China could still invade or blockade Taiwan if Taipei declares formal independence, if Washington gives Taiwan diplomatic recognition, or if Beijing concludes that taking control of Taiwan without war is no longer possible.
For now, the authors wrote, Beijing appears to view patience as the better strategy. Chinese leaders believe China is becoming stronger while the US is becoming less willing or able to defend Taiwan, they said.
Hsiao and Glaser said Beijing also believes its pressure campaign is working. China has tried to use military activity, diplomatic pressure, legal measures, and economic tools to limit Taiwan’s choices and weaken support for Taiwan independence.
Beijing has also tried to shape public opinion in Taiwan, the authors wrote. It has promoted closer economic ties, reached out to opposition politicians, and used online content to appeal to younger Taiwanese.
Hsiao and Glaser pointed to changes in young Taiwanese voters’ views as one reason for Beijing’s confidence. They said support for independence among people aged 20 to 29 has fallen in some polls, while support for unification has risen slightly from an extremely low level.
Beijing also sees Taiwan’s domestic politics as favorable, they wrote. China views the opposition-controlled Legislature as a limit on President Lai Ching-te’s (賴清德) agenda, including defense spending and cross-strait policy.
The authors said 2028 could test Beijing’s patience. Taiwan will hold a presidential election that year, while China is expected to have a new top military leadership team after a party congress in 2027.
If Lai wins another term and Beijing believes he is moving Taiwan closer to formal independence, China could increase pressure, Hsiao and Glaser wrote. They said Beijing could send more ships and aircraft closer to Taiwan or impose tighter controls on air and sea traffic.
Such actions could fall short of a full blockade or invasion but still raise the risk of conflict. China may use these steps to strengthen its claim over Taiwan and force Taipei to accept more pressure, the authors said.
However, Hsiao and Glaser said a war over Taiwan would still be costly and dangerous for Beijing. A failed attack or long conflict could damage China’s economy, weaken domestic stability, and leave it more isolated overseas.
For now, Chinese leaders appear willing to wait, the authors concluded. They believe Taiwan can be pressured over time and that China does not need to risk a major war while it still sees long-term trends moving in its favor.
