TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s remark that Taiwan Strait tensions could constitute an “existential threat situation” has derailed China’s strategy to annex Taiwan, Ogawa Kiyoshi, an analyst at the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan, said.

Ogawa, a former commander of Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force Western Army, said China’s plan to seize Taiwan is divided into three stages, CNA reported. The first is the peacetime stage, which involves creating social panic through cognitive warfare, amassing troops under the guise of military exercises, and surrounding Taiwan with military ships to block foreign intervention and establish a blockade.

The second stage includes shifting from exercises to real combat, launching missiles at Taiwan’s military facilities, and paralyzing command systems through cyber warfare, Ogawa said, per CNA. The third stage is a full-scale landing operation and securing air and sea superiority.

China focuses on gaining complete control of Taiwan before external powers like the US and Japan can intervene, Ogawa said. However, Takaichi’s comment suggests Japan and the US would respond in the first stage of Beijing’s plan. As a result, China must alter troop deployments and readjust operational strategies, he said, according to CNA.

Ogawa estimated that China would need to mobilize at least 300,000 troops for an assault on Taiwan. He added that even if China succeeded, it would still face pressure from Japan, the Philippines, and US forces, and might be forced to deploy troops to Okinawa and some Philippine islands.