TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research on Friday raised its GDP growth forecast for this year to 7.56%, citing AI demand as a key driver of exports.
TIER said the new estimate is up 3.51 percentage points from its January forecast, reflecting strong AI-related demand, per Liberty Times. It said capital spending in semiconductors and ICT, along with front-loaded orders and higher raw material prices, are boosting exports and external demand, per CNA.
The institute now expects export and import growth of 27.11% and 21.22% this year. Real export and import growth were also revised higher to 15.74% and 13.33%.
TIER President Chang Chien-yi (張建一) said the sharp upgrade comes despite Middle East tensions, as AI demand continues to support global investment. He said AI is expected to drive medium- to long-term growth, especially in business-to-business segments.
TIER Macroeconomic Forecasting Center Director Sun Ming-te (孫明德) said the AI boom is fueling demand for chips, servers, and related components. He said the surge is spreading across supply chains and driving investment in industrial capacity.
TIER raised its forecast for private investment growth to 4.42%. It said AI-driven demand remains the main engine supporting Taiwan’s economic momentum.
However, the institute warned that rising global commodity prices linked to geopolitical tensions are increasing import costs. It said inflation pressures are building, but remain manageable.
TIER forecast consumer price index growth at 1.89% this year, still below the 2% warning level. It said government measures such as subsidies and tax adjustments are helping to contain price increases.
Sun said inflation is mainly supply-driven and is not well suited to interest rate hikes. He said targeted policies should be used to limit cost pressures and avoid broader economic effects.
TIER said risks remain, including the Middle East conflict, energy price volatility, and US trade policy. It warned that extended geopolitical tensions could trigger broader economic disruptions.
