TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Heavy US munitions use in the war with Iran has left some Trump administration officials worried the US could not fully defend Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion in the near term, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.
The report said the US has fired more than 1,000 long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles and between 1,500 and 2,000 air-defense interceptors, including THAAD, Patriot, and Standard Missile systems, since the Iran war began on Feb. 28.
Officials said replenishing those stocks could take up to six years in some cases, while some said that estimate could be shortened through greater investment in the defense industry and a stronger focus on churning out lower-cost munitions, per WSJ.
National security analysts in Washington said the problem is not just raw numbers, but also industrial-base lead times, as major defense contractors typically need one to two years to significantly ramp up production.
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who co-wrote a report on US munitions status, was quoted warning that the stockpiles expended in the Iran war will take years to rebuild and that the shortfall is especially acute for defensive systems such as THAAD and Patriot interceptors.
This has raised concerns that in a high-intensity conflict with China, US forces would face tighter missile margins and potentially higher attrition while trying to protect Taiwan and allied forces. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said a US war to defend Taiwan would likely be far more costly and dangerous for US forces, per the report.
Taiwanese officials and Asia-focused analysts quoted in the article said they are watching the US drawdown closely, as many of these missiles were acquired specifically for a potential great-power conflict with China.
They said Washington remains legally bound to help Taiwan defend itself, but the pace of munitions use in the Middle East has raised questions about how quickly and how heavily armed US forces could respond if Beijing escalates in the Taiwan Strait.
