TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Iran conflict and disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz have prompted renewed scrutiny of the Taiwan Strait as a critical global maritime chokepoint, Nikkei Asia reported Monday.
The Taiwan Strait separates Taiwan from China and is one of the world’s busiest trade corridors. Approximately one-fifth of global maritime cargo passes through the waterway, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan.
Taiwan officials have publicly framed the Iran conflict as a cautionary example. Ocean Affairs Council Minister Kuan Bi-ling (管碧玲) said earlier this month, “Because of the war in Iran, more people are looking into the security of straits and ocean waters.”
A senior Cabinet member said the key takeaway is that even heavily monitored chokepoints can be disrupted. “The new lesson is the closure of a major strait by Iran’s warfare,” the official said. “Some say it’s harder for China to do so because Hormuz is narrower than the Taiwan Strait, but this may not necessarily be the case.”
The Strait of Hormuz narrows to about 32 kilometers at its tightest point, compared with roughly 130 kilometers for the Taiwan Strait. Despite the difference, officials say geography alone does not eliminate the risk of disruption.
China has repeatedly carried out military drills around Taiwan, and analysts warn that a blockade remains a potential coercive tool. Such a move would aim to pressure Taiwan politically while disrupting its economy.
A blockade would also have global consequences, particularly for energy flows and semiconductor supply chains. Taiwan plays a central role in advanced chip manufacturing, making it critical to global technology production.
The senior Cabinet member said Iran’s ability to influence shipping through Hormuz, despite US and allied presence, was especially concerning. “The world has been aware of the risks Hormuz and Iran pose to global trade for three or four decades, yet the closure still happened,” the official said.
Taipei is now preparing more detailed contingency planning, including drills simulating the escort of energy shipments under blockade conditions. Defense Minister Wellington Koo (顧立雄) has said isolation and blockade scenarios are already part of routine military exercises.
A senior foreign ministry official said the crisis reinforces the need for flexibility in energy and security planning. “Taiwan needs to allow itself to be more flexible about diversifying its energy resources and reserves,” the official said.
The Taiwan Strait is also a critical artery for global shipping, with official estimates suggesting more than half of the world’s container fleet passes through it. A 2024 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said about NT$77.2 trillion (US$2.45 trillion) in goods flowed through the strait in 2022.
The same report warned that even limited disruption could lead shipping firms to reroute, driven by risk and higher insurance costs. It added that China itself would suffer major economic consequences given its deep dependence on the route for imports and exports.
China’s defense ministry said Friday its military exercises near Taiwan are lawful and aimed at safeguarding sovereignty, per Reuters. Experts say Beijing could avoid formally announcing a blockade even if it attempts to restrict maritime access.
Royal United Services Institute Senior Research Fellow Philip Shetler-Jones said China could frame such actions as domestic enforcement under its so-called “One China Principle,” per Nikkei Asia. He said pressure could be applied using the coast guard and maritime militia, with the navy positioned nearby but not directly engaged.
Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration would play a frontline role in protecting shipping in such a scenario, supported by upgraded surveillance and response systems. The government has pledged about NT$63.91 billion to strengthen maritime security capabilities and early warning systems.
Regional allies are also adjusting their planning. The US, Japan, the Philippines, and other partners are launching large-scale exercises known as Balikatan, meaning “shoulder to shoulder.”
The drills focus on scenarios ranging from the South China Sea to a potential Taiwan Strait crisis.
Atlantic Council Global China Hub Associate Director Kitsch Liao said regional responses would depend heavily on US involvement, per Nikkei Asia. He said US bases in Japan and the Philippines would likely serve as key operational hubs in an early phase of any crisis.
Liao added that US forward-deployed forces in Japan could act as initial responders, but this would place Tokyo in a difficult strategic position. He said Japan would need to clarify its rules on the use of force in support of US operations before any escalation occurs.
