TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The IMF estimates that Taiwan’s per capita GDP will surpass South Korea’s by US$10,000 (NT$315,000) within five years, driven by the strength of its integrated semiconductor ecosystem. 

Taiwan’s real GDP per capita surpassed South Korea’s last year, and the gap is likely to continue expanding annually, per CNA. Officials from the Bank of Korea and other financial authorities on Sunday told The Korea Times the IMF projects South Korea’s per capita GDP will reach NT$1.17 million this year, up 3.3% from NT$1.14 million the previous year.

In its World Economic Outlook released Wednesday, the IMF expects South Korea to surpass US$40,000 in 2028, reaching NT$1.28 million (US$40,695). Taiwan, meanwhile, is set to cross the NT$1.26 million threshold earlier, rising from NT$1.24 million last year to NT$1.32 million this year. 

Taiwan is also projected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with per capita GDP exceeding NT$1.57 million by 2029. As a result, the income gap between South Korea and Taiwan is expected to steadily increase, from NT$147,000 in 2026 to NT$185,000 in 2027, NT$216,000 in 2028, NT$249,000 in 2029, and NT$285,000 in 2030. 

By 2031, Taiwan’s GDP per capita is projected to reach NT$1.76 million, compared with NT$1.45 million for South Korea. This would widen the gap to NT$317,000.

In worldwide rankings, Taiwan is expected to rise from 32nd to 30th place, while South Korea is projected to slip from 40th to 41st. The Korea Times report noted that Taiwan’s rapid per capita GDP growth is being driven by a “global semiconductor supercycle.”

Data from the Korea Center for International Finance (KCIF) shows that, as of the end of March, major global investment banks forecast Taiwan’s economic growth at an average of 7.1% this year, compared with just over 1% for South Korea. KCIF researchers attributed Taiwan’s strong performance to robust demand for AI, which has further solidified its dominance in the foundry sector.

In a report on Taiwan's economic boom, the researchers said that “Taiwan’s strength lies in its fully integrated semiconductor ecosystem, enabling a swift response to surging AI demand.” In contrast, they said South Korea still struggles to diversify its supply chains and broaden its industrial base.

They cautioned that South Korea’s export structure is growing increasingly skewed, with over 60% of semiconductor shipments concentrated in memory chips, especially DRAM. Park Jung-woo, an economist at Nomura Securities, told The Korea Times that South Korea needs to broaden its semiconductor and AI ecosystems to sustain growth.