TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Iran's gritty resistance against superior US and Israeli forces offers stark lessons for Taiwan as it bolsters defenses against potential Chinese aggression, highlighting the power of asymmetric weapons, resilient command structures and sheer determination to thwart a quick victory.
In a guest essay published in the New York Times on Friday, security analysts Daniel Byman and Seth G. Jones, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said some observers hail the conflict as a win for China due to battered US prestige and global economic fallout.
They said Iran's success stemmed from enduring decapitation strikes, counterattacking with drones and missiles, and threatening to choke the Strait of Hormuz using speedboats, submarines and anti-ship weapons — despite outdated conventional forces. Iran decentralized its command networks, dispersed and hid armaments in bunkers, and relied on mobile launchers to survive relentless bombing.
Byman and Jones said China boasts the world's largest navy with carriers, destroyers, nuclear submarines and advanced missiles, plus bombers and hypersonics. However, it lacks recent combat experience and faces Taiwan's growing arsenal of anti-ship missiles and drones that could create a deadly "kill zone" in the Taiwan Strait.
The article said the Trump administration has proposed a NT$450 billion (US$14 billion) arms package including drones, cruise missiles, uncrewed underwater vehicles, air defenses, rocket systems and mines. This should help Taiwan sink invasion ships at port, in transit or during landings.
Additionally, the authors argue that Taiwan must emulate Iran's playbook by preparing rapid leadership succession, decentralized controls, deception tactics and hardened, mobile defenses to withstand cyber, space and decapitation attacks. Air power alone failed to crush Iran, reminding would-be invaders like China that seizing Taiwan would demand risky amphibious assaults and heavy ground troop losses.
The NYT essay posits that the war warns Beijing of the perils of attacking a fortified defender while urging Washington and Taipei to prioritize massed "good enough" systems like the US LUCAS drone — a cheap Shahed copy — over high-tech marvels, potentially deterring aggression altogether.
