TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China could learn from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and control trade in the Taiwan Strait during a regional conflict, according to Stanford University Hoover fellow Eyck Freymann.

Freymann argued in a Financial Times opinion article last week that China could follow in Iran’s footsteps with a similar strategy without firing on merchant ships. Beijing could declare the right to control all goods entering and leaving Taiwan, he said. To make good on its threat, China could fire missiles or bullets, but not at ships, and declare specific “exclusion zones.”

If the region is deemed too risky, private carriers will avoid Taiwan’s waters and airspace, Freymann said. The US would then have to decide between accepting Beijing’s control over Taiwan’s trade or escalating to economic war or an actual military conflict, he said.

If the US and its allies tried to resupply Taiwan, China could harass them or threaten to do so. “If trade flows around Taiwan were physically disrupted, the energy shock to regional economies would be far greater than today,” Freymann said.

Given that Taiwan produces the majority of the world’s advanced chips, it may limit chip production to coerce countries into sending supplies in the event of a Chinese blockade, Freymann said. He also pointed out that there is no semiconductor reserve.

The scholar urged the US and its allies to prepare for a worst-case scenario in the Taiwan Strait by stockpiling resources, bolstering logistics, and establishing an economic crisis management framework. These measures should be stress-tested before a crisis occurs, he said.