TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — US military action against Iran gives China more room to pursue its ambitions toward Taiwan, analysts have said.
Washington’s unilateral missile strikes on Iran could make it easier for Beijing to rationalize any future aggression against Taiwan, analysts said, per the Financial Times.
Though Chinese state media has criticized the war with Iran, Beijing has not directly targeted Trump. Chinese leader Xi Jinping may not want to alienate the president, analysts said. Xi may see Trump as easier to pressure into cutting support for Taiwan or reducing weapons sales. They added that Xi is eager to maintain communication and uphold a bilateral trade truce.
Meanwhile, Beijing recognizes the significance of the US and Israel’s air superiority and ability to eliminate Iranian leaders, according to the analysts. The redeployment of US forces, including Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit based in Japan and components of some Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems in South Korea, to the Middle East has reduced the American presence in the Indo-Pacific.
China can also use this opportunity to boost its global standing, said the analysts quoted. It can present itself as a stable global power in contrast to an erratic US.
“Now with the war in Iran dragging on and the US so distracted . . . this is a very good opportunity [for China],” said Yun Sun, senior fellow and director of the Stimson Center’s China program.
China’s relations with Iran have frayed over the years, the Financial Times said. Xi delayed offering public condolences after Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed at the outset of the war. Only a junior vice minister was sent to the Iranian embassy in Beijing nearly a week later.
“Iran often describes the relationship as being in the same trench, opposing hegemony and unilateralism,” said Li Rui, a reporter with Chinese-state-media outlet Phoenix Television, during an Iranian foreign ministry conference in December. “But what China cares more about is controllable risk, calculable returns and a co-operative environment.”
Gedaliah Afterman, a China expert at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations in Israel, said the Iran war “gives China more leverage in its negotiation with Washington more generally.” He said China could offer to procure more US oil instead of Iranian oil.
“Whether China wins or loses in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will be down to whether the war ends quickly,” said James Char, a China expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. If the war continues, the US “being tied down away from the Indo-Pacific” means its “posture in this part of the world has been weakened,” Char added.




