TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Brookings Institution published an article calling for the US to take more resolute action in response to China’s gray zone activity around Taiwan.
To achieve long-term deterrence, researcher David Sacks argues that the US must revise its playbook against China’s gray zone tactics to be more coordinated, creative, and visible. By means of reciprocal action across economic, military, and diplomatic spheres, the US needs to “accept more near-term risk of escalation to preserve long-term deterrence in the strait,” Sacks says.
The article, titled “Paint it black: An asymmetric approach to China’s gray zone coercion of Taiwan,” makes the case that by allowing China to continue its current activity unopposed, regional partners will come to see the US as less and less reliable. Likewise, China’s incremental approach to pressuring Taiwan and eroding its readiness capabilities allows Beijing to steadily improve its ability to implement a blockade or conduct limited naval or aerial engagements.
Sacks says there is a disparity between how Taipei and Washington believe they ought to respond to China’s gray zone incursions and cognitive warfare campaigns. Beijing has concluded that it can exploit this disparity to put pressure on Taiwan without the need to fear any serious reprisal from the US, per the report.
Sacks claims that Taiwan and the US have not developed a coherent, unified approach to address China’s ongoing gray zone campaign. To implement effective deterrence, the US must “eliminate China’s perception that gray zone coercion is cost-free.”
The paper suggests possible US reciprocal actions that will reinforce its long-term strategy of access denial. It also recommends tighter coordination and communication with Taipei on these matters.
The US could deploy additional Typhon missile batteries to the region, increase the frequency of naval Freedom of Navigation Operations, or publicize joint training activities with Marine Littoral Regiment units and Japanese Self Defense Forces. Joint exercises on the Miyako Islands neighboring Taiwan would be particularly effective.
Sacks also floats diplomatic reprisals that link China’s activity in the Taiwan Strait more directly to the broader US-China relationship. Some examples include increased export controls or sanctions against Chinese companies that are considered to be involved in any activity that runs counter to determining the future of Taiwan by “peaceful means,” as stipulated by the Taiwan Relations Act.
The US should take a more resolute stance to reduce China’s gray zone pressure campaign on Taiwan and sow doubt among Chinese leaders about the possible success of any future military attack. Sacks emphasizes that the critical variable preventing an outright attack against Taiwan remains Beijing’s lack of confidence that it can actually succeed in a conflict.
