TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence reported Wednesday that China does not currently plan to carry out a military invasion of Taiwan in 2027.
The report states that China “prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible.” It also maintains that China could “use force to compel unification if necessary,” according to CNA.
The Pentagon assessed last year that China was developing the capability to prevail in a conflict over Taiwan by 2027. The Pentagon report noted that Beijing was considering plans that could include using “brute force” if required, according to Reuters.
According to the US intelligence agencies, the People’s Liberation Army of China is making “steady but uneven” progress in developing the ability to seize Taiwan, deter Taiwanese actions, and counter potential US intervention.
Beijing is understood to consider multiple factors in any military decision regarding Taiwan. These include the readiness of its armed forces, Taiwan’s actions and political situation, and potential US involvement.
Chinese officials recognize that a cross-strait amphibious operation would face significant challenges and a high risk of failure, especially with US intervention.
The report notes that if the US were to intervene militarily, its transportation and logistics systems could face cyberattacks from China. While such disruptions could be significant, they are expected to be largely recoverable.
If the US does not intervene, both US and global economic and security interests could face costly consequences, including disruptions to technology supply chains and market instability. A prolonged conflict between China and the US could result in unprecedented economic losses for both sides and the broader global economy.
Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington said it will continue to monitor Chinese activities. “China has never abandoned the use of force against Taiwan, and its continued military intimidation and gray-zone operations pose serious threats not only to Taiwan but also to regional peace and stability,” it said in a statement.
