TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Scholars say China’s recent reduction in military aircraft sorties near Taiwan may be a temporary gesture ahead of a possible meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump or rising oil costs, while warning Beijing’s military pressure against the nation is unlikely to ease.
The Taiwan Thinktank held a forum on Thursday titled “Analyzing China’s Two Sessions,” where scholars said Beijing’s pressure on Taiwan will gradually intensify this year, per CNA. This includes the institutionalization of coercive measures and the normalization of long-arm jurisdiction.
Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Shen You-chung (沈有忠) said Chinese military exercises targeting Taiwan will not decrease this year. When approving the Chinese military budget, Beijing designated funds for exercises in the first island chain and around Taiwan.
Shen said special attention should be paid this year to Beijing’s use of policies aimed at “promoting integration” and “counter-intervention,” along with strengthening the “one China principle” narrative. If the Taiwanese also echo this narrative and frame the Taiwan issue as China’s internal affair, it would weaken the legitimacy of intervention by international partners such as the US and Japan.
Shen warned that some narratives suggest the recent drop in PLA activity is meant to make the world think tensions have eased and Taiwan does not need to buy US weapons. He stressed fluctuations in Chinese military activity around Taiwan are “entirely a unilateral decision by the CCP,” and handing the initiative to Beijing would be extremely dangerous.
Chang Kuo-cheng (張國城), a professor at Taipei Medical University's Center for General Education, said that judging from China’s “Two Sessions,” Xi's rule remains firmly entrenched with no signs of serious challenges. Chang said the reduced PLA flights may be intended to show goodwill to Trump ahead of a possible meeting with Xi, but such activities could resume at any time.
China could also use this to signal to Asia-Pacific countries that it is cautious and flexible in its use of force. Chang stressed that flights around Taiwan are essentially rehearsals for a potential invasion, aimed at refining techniques and tactics rather than merely serving as military intimidation.
Wang Guo-chen (王國臣), an associate research fellow at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, offered an economic perspective, saying fewer PLA flights may be related to developments in Iran and Venezuela. Previously, China could purchase cheap oil from them at about one-third below market price, roughly US$15 (NT$479) to US$20 per barrel if the market price was US$60.
However, with Brent crude now rising to US$100 per barrel, the cost of launching each aircraft sortie is about five times higher than before.
