TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A new survey from Academia Sinica finds that a majority of Taiwanese say they would resist a potential Chinese invasion even if the United States did not intervene militarily.

The latest “American Portrait” survey shows that 58.7% of respondents said they would resist an invasion “at all costs” if the US declined to intervene, while 36.2% said they would not, per CNA.

If the US did intervene, 56.5% said they would still be willing to resist at all costs, while 34.8% said they would not.

Launched in 2021, the American Portrait project seeks to measure public attitudes in Taiwan toward defense spending, trust in the US, and willingness to resist a potential invasion. The survey is conducted annually by Academia Sinica as part of a 10-year research project scheduled to run through 2030.

The poll, released Thursday, also indicates public support for strengthening Taiwan’s defenses. About 53.9% of respondents support increasing defense spending to 3% of Taiwan’s GDP, while 31.1% oppose the increase.

Support for purchasing US weapons was even stronger, with 69.5% backing the policy and 24.7% opposing it.

Soochow University Assistant Professor Pan Hsin-hsin (潘欣欣) said the findings align with similar surveys conducted by nongovernmental organizations showing that a majority of Taiwanese are willing to resist an invasion.

Pan said political affiliation affects the results. Supporters of the ruling DPP tend to raise the share of respondents willing to resist at all costs, while supporters of the opposition KMT and TPP lower the figure. She said that among opposition supporters, willingness to resist drops further if the US does not intervene.

Regarding US arms purchases, Pan said nearly all DPP supporters back buying American weapons, compared with roughly two-thirds of TPP supporters and about half of KMT supporters. She said the divide mirrors legislative disagreements over US arms procurement.

The survey also asked respondents how Taiwan increasing its defense spending might affect reactions from China and the United States, per UDN.

For China, 48.1% said higher spending would have little impact on Beijing’s attitude toward Taiwan. Meanwhile, 23.6% said China would become more likely to attack, while 22.5% believed the risk would decrease.

On whether higher defense spending would affect US willingness to intervene militarily, 49.9% said it would have no impact, while 34.5% said it would make intervention more likely.

The poll also measured public trust in China and the US, per UDN.

When asked whether China is a trustworthy country, 76.3% said it is not, while 17% said it is. The result represents a slight Chinese gain from 2025, when 82.4% said China was untrustworthy and 11.7% said it was trustworthy.

Meanwhile, trust in the US has steadily declined since 2021, although it briefly rebounded in 2024 before continuing to fall.

Academia Sinica researcher Wu Wen-chin (吳文欽) said about 34% of respondents consider the US trustworthy, meaning more than 60% do not.

When asked whether US arms sales would increase Washington’s willingness to help defend Taiwan, 50.7% said the sales would have no impact. Another 17.7% said they would slightly increase US willingness, while 15.6% said they would significantly increase it.

Taiwan Heritage Foundation CEO David W. F. Huang (黃偉峰) said arms sales may send a more ambiguous signal than US naval vessels transiting the Taiwan Strait. Some people in Taiwan may interpret arms sales as reducing the likelihood of US intervention, he said.

Wu said the findings suggest the public has become less sensitive to US arms sales as a signal of support, adding that party affiliation strongly influences perceptions of the issue.

The survey was conducted from Jan. 20–26 through telephone interviews with 1,206 respondents with household registration in Taiwan. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.82 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.