TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — KMT Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介) has narrowed the gap with DPP Legislator Chen Ting-fei (陳亭妃) in the latest poll on the Tainan mayoral race, trailing by 5.39 percentage points.
A Big Media poll released Friday found 45.96% of respondents supporting Chen, compared with 40.57% backing Hsieh, per SETN. The result suggests a tighter race than the DPP’s three internal mayoral primary surveys, in which Chen defeated her rivals by an average margin of about 47%.
Among respondents who said they voted for President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) in the 2024 presidential election, 78.91% said they would support Chen in the mayoral race. That implies roughly 21% of Lai’s previous supporters may not vote for the DPP candidate.
In the survey, Lai’s favorability rating registered a net negative of 3.24%, while Tainan Mayor Huang Wei-che (黃偉哲) recorded a positive favorability rating of 5.6%.
When asked about party identification, 38.91% of respondents said they leaned toward the DPP, while 22.6% identified with the KMT and 6.91% with the TPP. Meanwhile, 13.41% said they were neutral toward political parties, 33.93% said they disliked only the DPP and 6.43% said they disliked only the KMT.
The survey was conducted from Feb. 23–28 among 1,580 internet respondents and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.48 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
A political observer said that considering the margin of error, the race could effectively be a statistical tie. The result may signal a shift from the DPP’s long-standing dominance in Tainan, per ETtoday.
The DPP has governed the city continuously since 1997, and Lai won a record 72.9% of the vote when he was re-elected mayor in 2014. Analysts say the Tainan mayoral race could carry broader political implications for the 2028 presidential election, per Storm Media.
For Chen, a key challenge will be uniting factions within the local DPP, per Liberty Times. During the party’s primary, she faced strong competition from fellow lawmaker Lin Chun-hsien (林俊憲), who commanded significant support within the party.
The two rivals recently attended a baseball-related event in Tainan together, though they barely interacted and avoided discussing politics. City council primary candidates aligned with either camp also largely stayed within their own factional circles, per UDN.
Chen may also face scrutiny over the size of her eventual victory margin if she wins, per Liberty Times. Observers note that Huang previously defeated Hsieh by a much smaller margin than Lai’s landslide victory in 2014, meaning Chen’s result could be interpreted as a gauge of support for the ruling DPP.
For Hsieh, the strategy is expected to focus on consolidating KMT and independent voters while framing the mayoral contest as a stepping stone toward challenging Lai’s political influence ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
