TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Asian allies are growing concerned that US military resources diverted to the Iran conflict could weaken Washington’s ability to deter China.
After the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, Japanese lawmakers gathered Monday at the ruling party’s offices in Tokyo to press officials on evacuation plans, energy reserves, and the legal basis for the action, per Reuters. Participants in the closed-door meeting questioned how Asian allies would fill any defense gap if ships and missiles meant to deter China were reassigned to the Middle East.
The dilemma is particularly urgent for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. US bases in Japan and South Korea help check China’s military activities and counter North Korea.
DPP Legislator Chen Kuan-ting (陳冠廷) said, “We hope this operation is fast, limited, and that resources can be promptly shifted back to Asia.” He warned a prolonged war could undermine “stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific," and said Taipei must prepare for possible escalation of Beijing’s “coercion.”
Trump has said US operations in the Middle East could last four to five weeks, or longer. He intends to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the end of March, though China has yet to confirm the trip.
A report last month by the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies said about 40% of combat-ready US Navy warships are deployed to the Middle East. The US Naval Institute said these include the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and at least six missile destroyers.
The only US aircraft carrier currently stationed in Asia, the USS George Washington, is undergoing maintenance in Yokosuka, Japan. Bryan Clark, a former US defense official and naval warfare specialist at the Hudson Institute, said, “The US Navy is stretched thin.”
Clark said a prolonged conflict could force Washington to scale back naval forces in Asia to support operations in Iran. “The fleet ... is not sufficient to keep a steady presence in every theater.”
The conflict is also depleting US munitions stockpiles, a risk long highlighted by experts. Although the Pentagon has asked defense contractors to speed up production, rebuilding supplies could take years.
A US official speaking on condition of anonymity said replenishing Indo-Pacific stockpiles is vital to deterring China from using force against Taiwan. Jan van Tol, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said Japan already faces delays in receiving hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles, with further setbacks possible.
Washington, only three months ago, labeled the Indo-Pacific a key “geopolitical battleground” in its new national security strategy and prioritized preventing a Taiwan conflict. Since then, Trump has removed Venezuela's Maduro from power, threatened to annex Greenland, and joined Israel in striking Iran.
While some Asian officials worry about divided attention, analysts say Beijing has little immediate cause for celebration. Others argue Trump’s moves could form part of a broader strategy ultimately aimed at containing China.
Still, deeper US involvement in the Middle East could create openings for Beijing. An unnamed Japanese ruling party lawmaker said the strategy was to be “contain Iran in the Middle East, then shift resources toward dealing with China,” but questioned whether sufficient resources would remain.
Jennifer Parker, a former warfare officer in the Royal Australian Navy and a nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, said China previously expanded its militarization of the South China Sea while the US was focused on Afghanistan. “Beijing will be watching closely,” she said.
