TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Removing Iran's Islamic Republic government is tantamount to removing one of China’s chess pieces in its Taiwan playbook, Zineb Riboua, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, said on Monday.
Iran is the most concentrated and vulnerable component in Beijing’s Middle East network, Riboua said in a Free Press article, per Liberty Times. Operation Epic Fury marks the first US military action that could sever this asset.
For every year Washington remains consumed by Iran, Beijing gains another year to advance its strategic positioning in the Indo-Pacific, Riboua said. Roughly 70% of China’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Malacca. In the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict threatening those sea lanes, Beijing would pivot to Iran, Russia, and Gulf states outside the dollar system.
China purchases 90% of Iran’s oil exports and transports them via ghost fleets that switch off transponders to evade US sanctions.
The US could not fight effectively on two fronts, she said. Attritional conflict in the Middle East would weaken deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
Additionally, a Taiwan Strait crisis would require a sanctions coalition. If major oil-producing nations refused to reduce exports to China, the sanctions would be ineffective.
US missile strikes on Iran weaken its links with China, but they are not the end, Riboua said. It is only the opening act in strategic competition with China, she said.
