TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A US think tank has outlined a new defense strategy for Taiwan that relies on large numbers of drones alongside traditional weapons to increase the cost of a potential Chinese invasion.
The Center for a New American Security report, titled “Hellscape for Taiwan: Rethinking Asymmetric Defense,” examines Taiwan’s asymmetric defense options. The concept builds on Ukraine’s use of low-cost drones to fight a larger military force.
The “Hellscape” idea was first proposed in June 2024 by US Indo-Pacific Command chief Samuel Paparo. He suggested that heavy deployment of unmanned systems in the Taiwan Strait could slow an invasion and allow additional military responses.
The report envisions Taiwan’s coastal defense in layers:
- Outer layer (80 km from shore): Long-range aerial, sea, and underwater drones disrupt incoming Chinese ships while depleting defenses
- Middle layer (35–5 km): Sea mines and one-way attack drones slow landing craft
- Final approach (within 5 km): Short-range drones target ships in visual range
Each layer is designed to intensify attacks as forces approach, supported by layered air defenses. The report notes that longer-range, more expensive drones would be needed if the US were to directly counter a Chinese invasion, emphasizing that “Hellscape” is primarily a Taiwanese self-defense concept.
Taiwan has pursued a “porcupine” strategy for two decades, focusing on survivable, dispersed defenses such as mobile coastal units, enhanced missile and drone capabilities, and international support, according to the Indo-Pacific Defense Forum.
The report suggests that integrating uncrewed aerial, surface, and underwater systems with existing artillery, mines, and air defenses could create a defense capable of challenging the People’s Liberation Army’s control of air and sea.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has indicated the PLA could be prepared for operations to take Taiwan by force by 2027, an internal benchmark signaling the seriousness of the threat.
The report says that implementing the concept would require Taiwan to acquire large numbers of uncrewed systems, including long-range attack drones, surface vessels, and underwater vehicles. It would also need to invest in air defense and counter-uncrewed aerial system capabilities such as mobile surface-to-air missiles, drone interceptors, and decoys.
The strategy emphasizes self-sufficiency. Under President Lai Ching-te (賴清德), Taiwan has invested in domestic drone production, but the industry faces high costs due to supply chain restrictions and reliance on allied technology.
The report emphasizes expanding domestic drone production, strengthening supply chains, and maintaining collaboration with European producers, while highlighting the importance of training and operational readiness.
