TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Bank of Taiwan said gold is expected to remain volatile this year, with geopolitical tensions likely to influence prices.
While the metal continues to attract investors as a safe-haven asset, the bank said a repeat of last year’s record gains is unlikely. Last year, gold prices increased following early-year US tariffs, reaching NT$88,416 (US$2,817.2) per troy ounce, according to CNA.
Prices were affected by Russia-Ukraine talks and Middle East tensions. A weaker US dollar and expectations of looser Federal Reserve policy also contributed.
Global investors and central banks increased gold allocations to diversify and stabilize portfolios. These resulted in year-end gains of over 70%.
Gold continued its upward trend entering this year, briefly reaching NT$175,750 per troy ounce in January. It adjusted to around NT$153,782 by early February.
Yang Tian-li (楊天立), manager of the bank’s Department of Precious Metals, described the correction as within a normal range. He expects short-term lows followed by a return to an upward trend over the next one to two months, with the bank projecting full-year gains of 20–30%.
Yang said that potential actions by US President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections remain a key uncertainty. He added that investor risk awareness, rather than central bank purchases, has been the primary factor supporting gold, as funds shift from bonds and foreign exchange markets into the metal.
The market is now focused more on geopolitical risks than on potential Fed rate cuts, Yang observed. He cautioned that predicting such developments remains difficult
On asset allocation, Yang recommends maintaining roughly a 10% exposure to gold. Other precious metals, such as silver and platinum, are far more volatile due to higher speculative activity.
