TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that 71% of experts believe Russia would provide limited military aid to China if it invaded Taiwan, while the same percentage said recent purges in the PLA would not deter Beijing from using force.
When asked whether Russia would support China in a Taiwan invasion, all respondents said Moscow would provide political and diplomatic backing, per CSIS. A large majority, 84%, also believe Russia would extend economic assistance.
About 71% of analysts said Russia would offer limited military aid, such as intelligence sharing, offensive cyber operations, or weapons shipments. Only one expert expects Moscow to intervene directly by deploying troops.
Seventeen percent said Russia would limit its support to diplomatic and political measures. Another 11% believe Moscow would provide a combination of diplomatic, political, and economic assistance.
Following major purges of senior PLA commanders ordered by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the survey also examined whether the shake-up would deter China from using force. Only 13% said the purges would likely prevent Beijing from employing significant military action.
Meanwhile, 57% said the purges create challenges for the PLA but will not stop China from using force. Eight percent believe the purges will have little to no impact on PLA readiness or Beijing’s willingness to act militarily.
Six percent believe the purges could actually increase the PLA's readiness “if more competent or less corrupt leaders replace their purged predecessors.” The remaining 16% said they do not have enough information to make a confident determination.
Amid speculation that US President Donald Trump may consider policy changes as part of a bargain with Beijing, 24% of experts said China believes the US could be willing to make major concessions. Fifty-three percent said Beijing thinks Washington could offer minor concessions.
Only 10% said China does not believe any concessions are possible. Thirteen percent said they did not have enough information to assess Beijing’s expectations.
Experts were divided on whether the risk of a US-China military conflict over Taiwan is increasing. Twenty percent said the risk was lower, 35% said it was unchanged, while 41% said it was higher.
More respondents, at 43%, identified the South China Sea as the most likely flashpoint for Chinese military escalation. The Taiwan Strait ranked second at 33%, followed by the Diaoyutai Islands at 10%, the China-India border at 3%, equally likely in all the above areas at 6%, and none of the above at 5%.
The survey collected online responses from 79 former US government officials and leading China experts from Dec. 1-18.
