TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Independent voters, long treated as a vague or symbolic “silent majority” in Taiwan politics, are emerging as a decisive and increasingly distinct force shaping elections, according to new research led by pollster and political scientist Lev Nachman.

In an interview, Nachman said the central contribution of his latest survey work is demonstrating that Taiwanese voters cannot be neatly divided into the traditional blue and green camps. Instead, independents now make up as much as 30% to 40% of the electorate, a share that has grown significantly over time and often determines electoral outcomes.

“For a long time, we talked about Taiwan as blue versus green,” Nachman said. “But that’s just not how voters actually look anymore. You have got roughly 30% blue, 30% green, and a very large middle that’s independent. And that middle is decisive.”

Nachman said survey data show the independent bloc has expanded steadily, reflecting broader trends seen in democracies worldwide. Many independents, he said, are not covert partisans but voters who are disengaged from politics or lack a strong attachment to political parties.

“We have statistical tools that show us, independent voters as a group still behave very differently from those who identify as partisan voters.”

Unlike committed supporters of the KMT or DPP, whose views are relatively predictable, independents display far more variability, especially on complex or technical political issues. That ambiguity, Nachman said, was a key motivation behind the study.

Both major parties, he noted, routinely claim that the “silent majority is on their side.” The survey set out to test that assumption during and after the Bluebird Movement protests against controversial legislative reforms.

The findings suggest independents were more likely to side with the KMT than the DPP on issues related to legislative reform and the role of the Constitutional Court. Nachman cautioned that surveys can identify patterns but cannot fully explain motivations, though political fatigue and low engagement may play a role.

“If you do not really follow politics closely, some of these reform arguments can sound logical or reasonable on the surface,” he said. “That does not mean people are deeply ideological; it may just reflect exhaustion or distance from the process.”

Beyond independents, the research also examined supporters of the TPP. Nachman said TPP voters stood out for their higher tolerance of what researchers classified as non-democratic or populist practices, compared with both KMT and DPP voters.

The findings, he said, help ground long-standing claims about TPP rhetoric in actual voter attitudes. “This is not just elites talking this way,” Nachman said. “We see it reflected in the values of the party’s supporters themselves.”

Despite leadership changes and shifts in its platform, Nachman said the TPP retains a durable base of roughly 10% to 15% of popular support and remains politically relevant. He attributed part of its appeal to its anti-establishment branding and ability to reach voters directly through social media, particularly younger voters.

Nachman said the complexity of Taiwan’s semi-presidential system and the absence of presidential veto power have further muddied public understanding of recent constitutional disputes.

“What we suspected is now backed by data: independents are not as reliably on the DPP’s side, and populist appeals resonate with certain segments in ways we did not previously have evidence for.”

While the academic nature of the study may limit its immediate public impact, Nachman said the response has been strong across political camps, suggesting growing awareness that Taiwan’s political landscape is undergoing a fundamental shift.

The surveys were conducted in two waves, one during the Bluebird Movement and another after the Constitutional Court issued a ruling on the disputed reforms. Each wave sampled roughly 1,400 to 1,500 respondents through nationally representative, random surveys conducted by university-based research teams at National Chengchi University and National Taiwan University.