TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Democratic Progressive Party Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Lai Jui-lung (賴瑞隆) defeated Kuomintang Legislator Ko Chih-en (柯志恩) by more than 11 percentage points in the latest survey.
In a Newtalk poll released Monday, Lai outperformed Ko in nearly all districts except Fengshan District and the greater Chi-Mei area, which includes mountainous districts in northeastern Kaohsiung, per ETtoday. Citywide, Lai received 43.9% support, compared with 32.3% for Ko.
Among nonaligned voters, however, Ko led Lai, with 22.1% backing Ko and 13.9% supporting Lai.
A local DPP insider said the poll showed Lai defeating Ko by nearly 20 points in Zuoying and Nanzih districts, both traditionally KMT strongholds, per Newtalk. At the same time, Lai’s loss to Ko in the greater Chi-Mei area — a traditional DPP stronghold represented by Lai’s primary rival, Legislator Chiu Yi-ying (邱議瑩) — signaled the need for further consolidation of support.
The insider said the DPP’s path to victory hinges on how quickly it can unite after the primary, leaving little opportunity for the KMT to capitalize. The source warned the party could not afford to lose Kaohsiung, as doing so could undermine its prospects in the 2028 presidential election.
The Newtalk poll was conducted Jan. 29–30 among 1,083 respondents and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.98 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Responding to the results, Lai said his top priority is unifying DPP factions to maintain the party’s governance in Kaohsiung, per TVBS. Ko also commented, noting that during the DPP primary, Lai led her by 30 points, per TVBS. She questioned how Focus Survey Research, which conducted both the Newtalk poll and the DPP primary polling, produced results showing an almost 20-point swing in just two weeks.
Compared with a recent ETtoday poll, the Newtalk survey showed a similar trend among nonaligned voters, though the ETtoday poll had Ko leading Lai by 6.3 points. A TVBS survey conducted in December 2025 showed Lai ahead by about 2 points, within the margin of error.
National Taiwan University of Arts Department of Radio and Television professor Lai Hsiang-wai (賴祥蔚) discussed discrepancies among the DPP primary, ETtoday, and TVBS polls with Chinese Culture University professor Chuang Po-chung (莊伯仲), per UDN. Chuang said Lai Jui-lung’s weaker showing in the latter two polls may be due to the DPP’s lack of consolidation following a closely contested primary.
Lai Hsiang-wai said Lai Jui-lung could gain at least 10 percentage points once consolidation is complete. Both scholars agreed that whoever wins the mayoral race will face urgent challenges, including addressing low incomes and population outflow in Kaohsiung.
