TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Analyst Richard Heydarian said US President Donald Trump’s disregard for international law could leave frontline allies such as Taiwan and the Philippines more vulnerable, Nikkei Asia reported Friday.
Heydarian, author of “The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery,” said recent US rhetoric and actions signal a departure from decades of support for a rules-based system.
Trump has dismissed international law, portraying his own judgment as the primary constraint on the use of US power. Senior advisers have reinforced that stance, framing global politics as governed by strength rather than legal norms, Heydarian said.
He pointed to recent US actions, including the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, as examples of militarily effective operations that nonetheless set unsettling precedents. While some US allies welcomed the outcome, Heydarian said rivals are likely studying the methods involved.
China, he said, appears to be doing exactly that. Beijing’s recent military drills, including leadership decapitation scenarios, suggest it’s drawing lessons from US behavior and reassessing constraints on the use of force.
For Taiwan and the Philippines, the erosion of international norms poses risks over the long term. Heydarian said both rely on US security backing and international law to offset China’s far greater military and economic leverage.
The Philippines has leaned heavily on legal mechanisms in the South China Sea, most notably a 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling that rejected China’s expansive maritime claims. According to Heydarian, Manila has also depended on a US naval presence to indirectly reinforce that ruling.
Trump’s apparent skepticism toward international law could undermine that approach, he said, making it harder for the Philippines to mobilize diplomatic support against China. At the same time, Beijing could gain influence over US partners in Europe and Canada, potentially weakening support for Taiwan and Manila during a crisis.
Heydarian also warned that a norm-defying US posture could strengthen hawkish voices within China that favor a more muscular approach toward Taiwan.
While Taiwan has strengthened its defenses and partnerships, Heydarian said China’s ability to rapidly modernize its military and absorb foreign operational lessons narrows the margin for error. Without stronger deterrence measures, he said, the risks of coercive action could rise.
The Philippines, he added, may be even more exposed due to weaker institutions and internal political divisions. Chinese efforts to cultivate influence among political and military elites could intensify, he argued.
Heydarian said in a world increasingly shaped by raw power, smaller states could face shrinking strategic choices. He warned that domestic political forces in Taiwan and the Philippines that advocate accommodation with Beijing may gain traction if security guarantees appear less reliable.
