TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s decision to investigate senior military figures has reduced the risk of near-term military attack against Taiwan but could increase unpredictability over the longer term, according to a military analyst.

Xi has placed Zhang Youxia, vice chair of the Central Military Commission, and CMC member Liu Zhenli under investigation for alleged “serious violations of discipline and the law,” a move that amounts to one of the most significant shakeups of China’s military command in years.

Yaita Akio, CEO of the Indo-Pacific Strategic Think Tank, said the purge is likely to weaken the People’s Liberation Army’s operational capacity in the short term, lowering the likelihood of a cross-strait conflict for now, per LTN.

Many observers believe the purge will erode the PLA’s combat effectiveness and benefit peace across the Taiwan Strait, Yaita said, adding that the assessment merits consideration.

First, the PLA is likely to undergo a broader purge over the next one to two years to remove what Yaita described as “remnants of its past.” In such an atmosphere, senior officers are expected to prioritize self-preservation over initiative, making a military operation against Taiwan unrealistic in the near term.

Second, the removal of generals with practical combat and organizational experience is creating a leadership vacuum. For a period of time, Yaita said, the PLA may find itself in a situation where “no one can be used, and no one dares to use anyone.”

Third, China’s decade-long anti-corruption campaign has paradoxically worsened the problem, Yaita said. Many of the generals now under investigation were personally promoted by Xi, undermining the credibility of the leadership at a time when only one member of the six-person CMC remains in office.

Yaita cautioned, however, that these are largely short-term effects. Over the medium to long term, he said, risks for Taiwan could increase in several ways.

As Xi becomes more isolated, fewer officials will be willing or able to offer frank advice, Yaita said. With power increasingly concentrated and internal checks diminished, the risk of extreme or miscalculated decisions may rise.

Future military leaders may also be judged less on professional competence and experience and more on their ability to anticipate the intentions of superiors, he said. Such information filtering could further detach Xi from realities on the ground.

Finally, the purge reflects broader changes in modern warfare, with an entire generation of senior officers potentially being replaced by younger commanders more receptive to emerging technologies. While such turnover can be destabilizing for many militaries, Yaita warned it could ultimately become an advantage for China, as Taiwan cannot afford to be complacent.