TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A recent opinion survey shows Taipei Deputy Mayor Lee Shu-chuan (李四川) as the only opposition figure capable of mounting a competitive challenge against Democratic Progressive Party New Taipei mayoral candidate Su Chiao-hui (蘇巧慧).

According to the Formosa poll released on Thursday, neither New Taipei Deputy Mayor Liu Ho-jan (劉和然) nor Taiwan People’s Party Chair Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) would defeat Su if they ran as the sole opposition candidate, per ETtoday. Liu trailed Su by 11 percentage points, while Huang lagged by five points.

In a hypothetical three-way race involving the DPP, Kuomintang, and TPP, Lee narrowly defeated Su, though the margin fell within the poll’s margin of error. Lee was the only opposition contender to outperform Su under that scenario, as both Huang and Liu lost in their respective three-way matchups.

The survey also found that nearly 70% of respondents expressed satisfaction with New Taipei Mayor Hou You-yi’s (侯友宜) governance. However, about 34% of respondents said they preferred the KMT to remain in power, while roughly 41% — when combining those who favored either the DPP or the TPP — said they preferred a change in governance.

The Formosa poll was conducted Jan. 19–21 among 1,070 respondents, 749 via landlines and 321 via mobile phones, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Responding to the poll, Su said she takes every survey seriously and will continue working to earn voter support, per SETN. Liu acknowledged that as a longtime civil servant and New Taipei resident, he still has work to do to raise his public profile, per UDN. Huang said he remains weak among voters aged 60 and older but noted that he leads among voters under 40, per Tai Sounds.

Separately, TVBS released a poll on Jan. 16 that did not examine a three-way race but produced similar findings. The poll identified Lee as the only opposition candidate capable of defeating Su in a head-to-head matchup.

The TVBS survey showed Su defeating both Huang and Liu by at least six points, while losing to Lee by 15 points. Su led Lee among voters aged 29 or younger but trailed him across all other age groups.

When respondents were asked which opposition candidate they preferred, 44% chose Lee, compared with 18% for Huang and 7% for Liu. The TVBS poll was conducted Jan. 6–16 among 997 respondents, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The Formosa poll suggested that opposition consolidation may be key to winning the New Taipei mayoral race. Meanwhile, the KMT would need to rally behind a single contender before any negotiations with the TPP could begin.

Asked about KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun’s (鄭麗文) call for the party to finalize its nominee before Lunar New Year, Hou said Tuesday that he would play his part in ensuring the right candidate is selected at the appropriate time, per ETtoday. Hou has already met with Lee to discuss the upcoming election.

A local political insider said Lee has considered following Hou’s previous example by resigning from his post around March. However, the insider said Hou advised against doing so, noting that the DPP has already named its candidate. 

Hou has reportedly suggested that the KMT’s nominee take advantage of the Spring Festival period to increase public exposure. Addressing reports that Cheng has not met with Hou and has suggested he rarely involves himself in party affairs, the insiders said Hou remains influential within the local party chapter, with candidate coordination and timing largely following his recommendations.