TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The “2025 China Monitoring Report,” produced by Taiwanese researchers, shows China’s economic growth slowing and social unrest rising.
The report draws on roundtable discussions with domestic and international experts and analyses from leading global think tanks. Organized into five categories, including economy, finance, fiscal policy, society, and politics, it tracks 50 indicators to observe long-term trends.
It finds China’s economy has followed an “internal cooling, external heating” pattern since 2019, with growth largely supported by exports due to weak consumer demand and low private and government investment. The report notes that China’s economic policy shows no sign of shifting direction, continuing to prioritize production over consumption and concentrating resources on upgrading high-tech manufacturing.
Fixed-asset investment in China fell 2.6% year-on-year from January to November last year, a larger drop than the market had predicted. Exports supported overall growth as imports declined, while the trade surplus reached a record NT$37.87 trillion (US$1.2 trillion), according to Trading Economics and Reuters.
Foreign investment has also decreased. According to CNBC, participants at the Milken Institute’s Asia Summit in October noted that China’s tightly controlled and opaque environment makes it difficult to fully trust, Yahoo News reported.
The report links economic pressures to slower income growth, rising inequality, higher unemployment, and increasing debt burdens, which in turn have contributed to falling marriage and birth rates and growing social unrest. From June 2022 to November last year, the China Dissent Monitor recorded 13,200 protest-related events, averaging more than 300 per month, according to The Reporter.
In the third quarter of last year, 1,392 protests were recorded, an increase of 45% from the same period in 2024, and protests have grown year-on-year for six consecutive quarters. Analysts attribute the rise primarily to economic decline, especially in the real estate sector.
The report suggests that, unlike during the Hu Jintao era, these protests focus less on direct economic losses and more on perceived unfairness. The social contract of accepting authoritarian rule in exchange for rising living standards may be eroding.
Politically, anti-corruption campaigns continue under leader Xi Jinping, accompanied by high absentee rates among senior officials at the fourth plenary session. The report notes that, despite centralized control, a high absentee rate among senior officials reflects internal instability, while China continues to prioritize national security and social stability over economic growth.
Tao Yi-fen (陶儀芬), associate professor of political science at National Taiwan University and one of the researchers behind the report, told Nikkei Asia that constrained financial and fiscal resources, along with Xi’s geopolitical and technological ambitions, suggest this approach is likely to continue this year.
Tao added that China is expected to maintain a firm stance toward Taiwan and neighboring countries, applying pressure to limit their cooperation with the US and curb the development of their military and economic capabilities.
China’s exports contributed about 33% to GDP growth last year, the highest since 1997. The report notes that unless domestic demand, deflation, and deleveraging cycles change dramatically, China’s economic growth will continue to rely on exports.
Whether this reliance increases or decreases China’s autonomy in the global supply chain remains a key area for observation.
