TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Standard Chartered on Thursday raised Taiwan’s GDP growth forecast from 2.5% to 3.8% for this year.

The British bank pointed to strong demand for AI-related semiconductors, front-loaded shipments, and improved consumer spending, per CNA. It said soaring AI investment has boosted Taiwan’s semiconductor exports and capital spending, driving up its revision, per UDN.

Standard Chartered noted that Taiwan–US trade talks remain a key variable but said Taiwan’s exports have so far avoided major disruption from US tariffs. About two-thirds of exports, largely chips and computer products, are temporarily exempt from tariff measures, it said.

It also raised its forecast for Taiwan’s 2027 GDP growth to 2.7%, noting that advanced computing exports should remain solid even as global growth moderates.

On the global outlook, the bank warned that geopolitical tensions and financial market adjustments will keep risks elevated this year. As major central banks approach the end of their rate-cut cycles, policy support is expected to shift toward fiscal spending and investment, with consumer demand remaining a critical growth pillar.

Among major economies, Standard Chartered raised its US growth forecast to 2.3%, citing corporate tax cuts and AI adoption that should lift business investment. It cautioned, however, that policy uncertainty, including midterm elections and leadership changes at the Federal Reserve, could fuel market volatility.

For China, the bank lifted its growth forecast to 4.6%, supported by continued fiscal and monetary easing and a stronger focus on domestic consumption. While a temporary easing of US–China trade tensions and export diversification may help, Standard Chartered said bilateral trade risks remain elevated as US political pressures intensify.