TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A US military expert says a Chinese decapitation strike to quickly eliminate Taiwan’s leadership is unlikely to succeed, citing robust air defenses and political structure.
Former Pentagon consultant Kris Osborn said operations to blind defenses and rapidly seize key targets are difficult to execute, in an online article. He said China cannot replicate the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro because “Venezuela is not Taiwan,” with Taipei’s air defense network significantly more robust.
Osborn said achieving low-altitude air superiority, necessary for inserting forces and extracting leadership, would be difficult for China’s fixed-wing and rotary aircraft. Even with substantial surveillance capabilities, executing a pinpoint strike and deploying a force to abduct political leaders would be a formidable task, he wrote.
US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Dan Caine, speaking at a press conference after the covert action, said US air superiority was achieved in Venezuela as helicopters took off before dawn and flew at an altitude of 33 meters. US satellites also assisted the mission by jamming Venezuela's radar systems, per CNA.
Osborn admitted China's intelligence surveillance capabilities over Taiwan are quite substantial, with identifying and locking onto targets an easy task for Beijing. However, even in the most ideal scenario, conducting a precision strike and deploying a force capable of abducting political leadership presents significant challenges.
Furthermore, Osborne said a more crucial question would be the operation's overall effectiveness in toppling the government. Given Maduro's sphere of power, capturing a dictator like him could likely paralyze the government, rendering it inoperable.
"By contrast, any successful operation to abduct or remove Taiwanese leaders would not cripple Taiwan's democracy," said Osborne. He said the outcome or result of a decapitation strike on Taiwan would not parallel Venezuela in any way, as Taiwan would carry on.
“Taiwan would likely continue operating with some measure of success in the event its leadership is captured,” said Osborn.
