TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — An analyst believes finalizing a Taiwan–US tariff agreement will take longer than expected, as US President Donald Trump is preoccupied with major geopolitical developments, including the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, per CNA.
Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明), president of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, said Trump’s move in Venezuela signals a revival of the Monroe Doctrine, with Washington placing greater emphasis on spheres of influence. He said such strategic priorities have taken precedence over trade talks.
In a Facebook post commenting on the arrest, Lien said Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that he is unafraid of controversy or conflict. Despite facing numerous legal accusations throughout his political career, Trump has not “chickened out” of major decisions, Lien wrote, describing him instead as politically astute and unconcerned with saving face.
Lien said that, unlike previous Republican presidents, Trump seeks to avoid prolonged international interventions that could burden the US economy, preferring limited and targeted military actions. He added that the success of the recent operation was partly due to Maduro’s extremely low approval ratings, which reduced the likelihood of widespread public backlash in Venezuela.
However, Lien warned that Trump’s declaration of a revived Monroe Doctrine could provoke resistance and fuel anti-US sentiment across the Americas.
He said it will be worth observing whether Trump’s strong assertion of US influence in the Western Hemisphere would allow for greater tolerance of power-sharing in the Eastern Hemisphere, particularly in Asia.
As an example, Lien pointed to South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s ongoing visit to China, which could lead to shifts in Seoul’s approach to relations with Washington and Beijing. Lee is widely expected to continue what he has described as “pragmatic diplomacy,” characterized by relying on the US for security and on China for economic ties.
Lien said Lee may face pressure over the deployment of US troops in South Korea amid regional tensions, a challenge that could test Seoul’s delicate balancing act between US and Chinese interests and whether Washington is willing to tolerate South Korea maintaining close ties with both sides.
Commenting on speculation that Trump’s influence could weaken if his party performs poorly in the upcoming midterm elections, Lien said his view remains unchanged. “Only 300 days have passed; there are still 1,000 days left,” he said, adding that expectations of Trump narrowing his agenda may amount to wishful thinking.
On the timeline for a Taiwan–US tariff agreement, Lien said delays are likely. “Trump is busy with other important matters and doesn’t have time for small matters,” he said.
