TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — European analysts said China’s recently concluded “Justice Mission 2025” exercise around Taiwan aimed to pressure the country while also projecting Beijing’s growing military capabilities.
Valerie Niquet, head of the Asia Department at France’s Foundation for Strategic Research, said in an interview with France TV that this is not the first time China has pressured Taiwan and likely will not be the last, as Beijing will increasingly resort to such tactics to demonstrate its developing military capabilities. She added that an actual invasion is unlikely, as it would come at a high cost and carry significant risks, per CNA.
The program aired a recently released AI-generated video clip from the People's Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command showing a range of unmanned aerial vehicles across its land, sea and air forces, as well as a weapon-wielding robot. Niquet said the video had a science fiction element, raising doubts about whether it represented real capabilities or was merely a show.
While she did not believe China is likely to invade Taiwan any time soon, she said a perceived image of unreliability conveyed by the US is dangerous because it might lead China to believe it can take action while the US remains neutral. Misinterpreting US actions could lead to unforeseen escalation, she said.
Jonathan Sullivan, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham, told France 24 that the exercise was significant because it involved joint operations by land, sea, air, and rocket forces. Overall, however, he said the Chinese military did not display anything it had not shown before.
Sullivan said the drills were a response to the US State Department’s approval of arms sales to Taiwan on Dec. 17. They were also a response to remarks by Japanese lawmaker Takaichi Sanae during a parliamentary inquiry in November that the use of warships and accompanying force around Taiwan “could constitute a situation of survival for Japan.”
Zeno Leoni, a lecturer in defense studies at King’s College London, concurred that China views Takaichi’s remarks as suggesting a willingness to intervene in any Taiwan conflict, a position unacceptable to Beijing.
Simona Grano, head of the Research Area China-Taiwan Relations at the University of Zurich, said Takaichi’s remarks, coupled with the US arms sales, represent external interference, describing them as “a setback for the Chinese diplomatic narrative, which insists on the internal nature of the Taiwan issue.”
Grano added that the Chinese military also needs to reassure the public and build confidence after former PLA Eastern Theater Command commander Lin Xiangyang was expelled for corruption, and political commissar Liu Qingsong also disappeared.
She said the exercise was the first major test for the newly appointed commander, Yang Zhibin. The large-scale drills signal that the leadership turmoil has passed and allow the public to see the strength of the military command system.
Similarly, Sullivan believes that the military purge has sparked speculation in Western countries about Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ability to control the military and that holding a large-scale military exercise at this time is intended to dispel external suspicions.
