TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Chinese attack on Taiwan could draw in Japan, putting its territory, trade lifelines, and security alliance with the US at risk, the Wall Street Journal reported.
That reality was underscored last month when Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae suggested Japan could respond militarily if China tried to seize Taiwan, prompting angry reactions from Beijing and renewed military flights. China’s message was blunt: Taiwan is not Japan’s business.
But Taiwan sits at a strategic maritime crossroads vital to Japan, the US, and the global economy. Major shipping routes pass through the South and East China Seas, skirting Taiwan and chokepoints such as the Bashi Channel.
If China were to take Taiwan, it would gain dominant control over key sea lanes and expand its ability to project military power deep into the Pacific. Such a shift would allow Beijing to pursue territorial and maritime claims more aggressively.
“The balance of power in Asia would be tipped quite decisively in favor of China should Taiwan fall into China’s hands,” said Robert Ward of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
China is constrained by the First Island Chain, stretching from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines. Breaking through that arc has long been a strategic objective for Beijing, Ward said.
Any major conflict would quickly test the US-Japan security alliance. Taiwan would likely need US military intervention to resist a full-scale assault, and US forces would in turn rely heavily on Japan.
Washington’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” leaves open whether it would intervene directly. However, military planners widely agree that fighting without access to Japanese bases would severely limit US options.
Geography makes Japan especially exposed. The Ryukyu island chain arcs southwest toward Taiwan, with Yonaguni Island lying less than 110 kilometers from Taiwan.
In a conflict, those islands could sit on the edge of — or inside — the battle zone. Missile strikes, naval blockades, and air operations would place Japanese territory and civilians at direct risk.
Tokyo has responded by reinforcing its southwestern defenses in recent years. New bases, radar sites, electronic warfare units, and missile deployments have been added across the Ryukyus.
Japan has stationed Type 12 anti-ship missiles on several islands and is developing longer-range versions. Yonaguni is also slated to receive surface-to-air missile systems.
These capabilities would be central if Japan chose to join a fight over Taiwan. Submarines, warships, and land-based missiles could help constrain Chinese naval movements.
Japan’s own dispute with China over the Diaoyutai Islands further complicates matters. The uninhabited islets lie just northeast of Taiwan and are a frequent flashpoint between Tokyo and Beijing.
A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would remove a strategic buffer, said Tatsumi Yuki of the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security. Japan would face more direct and sustained pressure from the Chinese military.
Much would hinge on US access to Japanese bases such as Kadena Air Base in Okinawa and the naval hub at Yokosuka. These facilities are critical for air operations, logistics, and sustained combat power.
Without Japan, the US would be forced to rely far more on distant locations like Guam. That would sharply limit fighter operations and make sustained air superiority near Taiwan difficult to maintain.
