TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Analysts say China’s latest military exercises are aimed at deterring closer US-Japan security ties and demonstrating coordination with Russia, reflecting a strategy to constrain Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and test Taiwan’s resolve.
China’s Eastern Theater Command on Monday morning announced the start of the “Justice Mission 2025” joint military exercises, with live-fire drills scheduled for Tuesday from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. across five sea and air zones around Taiwan. The Ministry of National Defense responded by setting up an emergency response center and carrying out immediate readiness drills, per CNA.
Tamkang University Assistant Professor Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑) told CNA that the recently announced major US arms sales alone do not explain Beijing’s decision to launch the drills. He said the core motivation is Japan’s increasingly tough stance, particularly Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about a "Taiwan contingency," and deepening US-Japan military cooperation.
Lin pointed out that, compared with past PLA exercise zones, this round avoided sensitive waters near Yonaguni Island, Japan’s westernmost island. He said this reflects a “borrowing strength to apply pressure” psychological tactic.
The tactic signals to Taiwan that, despite rhetorical support from the US and Japan, external powers would not truly intervene in a conflict. It is intended to undermine public morale and revive skepticism toward the US and Japan.
Russia recently announced it would conduct two months of live-fire drills in the Northern Territories starting Jan. 1, 2026, putting Japan on high alert. Lin said China’s timing, near the end of the year, shows strong China-Russia coordination.
The strategy leverages Russia’s northern pressure to pin down Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, preventing them from reallocating resources to support Taiwan. Lin added that observers should also watch for potential North Korean military actions to tie down US forces in South Korea.
If China, Russia, and North Korea act in coordination, Lin said, it aligns with the PLA’s “five-seas linkage” concept. This strategy involves simultaneously coordinating operations in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Philippine Sea to challenge the resilience of the first island chain.
With the Shanghai-Taipei City Forum having just concluded, the PLA moved quickly to launch drills. Lin said this shows Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan follows its own rhythm and is not eased by cross-party exchanges or shifts in Taiwan’s domestic positions, stressing that “the main theme of pressure on Taiwan will not change.”
Former US Department of Defense official Tony Hu (胡振東) told CNA that Beijing’s move aims to intimidate Taiwan and influence elections by supporting aligned political figures. He said China’s ambition to annex Taiwan has never changed and urged the public to strengthen defenses, as only real capabilities can ensure peace.
Hu added that the PLA’s live-fire drills are a valuable training opportunity for Taiwan’s military to test operational plans. He said Russia is unlikely to intervene directly but would likely constrain Japan’s Self-Defense Forces in the north, preventing reinforcements to the south.
