TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Limited production capacity among US defense contractors has delayed arms deliveries to Taiwan, including fighter jets, air-to-ground missiles, and anti-ship weapons.

Tracking data from George Mason University showed that as of November, undelivered weapons approved for sale to Taiwan totaled NT$688 billion (US$21.5 billion), per Nikkei Asia. The backlog spans multiple weapons systems and is valued at nearly 70% of Taiwan’s projected 2026 defense budget.

Rush Doshi, former deputy senior director for China and Taiwan affairs at the White House National Security Council, told Nikkei that delivery of 66 F-16V Block 70 fighter jets scheduled for 2026 has slipped to 2027 or 2028. The aircraft are regarded as capable of matching China’s most advanced fighters.

An air-to-surface missile system approved in 2017 has also had its delivery timeline pushed back to 2027 or later.

The Harpoon anti-ship missile system, approved in 2020, began arriving this year, but full delivery is not expected until 2028. The missiles can target Chinese warships attempting to transit the Taiwan Strait.

The delays come as Washington expands support for Taiwan’s defense. On Dec. 17, the US State Department informed Congress of a record arms sale package worth NT$348.92 billion (US$11.1 billion).

The package includes Javelin anti-tank missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. Both systems are central to Taiwan’s asymmetric defense strategy, emphasizing mobility and precision.

On Dec. 18, Representative John Moolenaar, chair of the US House Select Committee on China, called the sale “an outstanding move by the Trump administration to strengthen the partnership between the United States and Taiwan and deter a CCP invasion.” He also urged swift delivery, citing US intelligence assessments that China could be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.

“Taiwan is investing in its own defense, and I hope these urgently needed items are swiftly delivered in order to strengthen deterrence,” Moolenaar said.

Capacity constraints within the US defense industrial base are a primary cause of the delays. An analysis by the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies of 25 weapons systems found that as of late September 2024, only seven were rated “strong,” meaning they can meet projected demand.

Fourteen systems were categorized as “requires attention,” indicating production must be expanded within two years to keep pace with needs. Four others were deemed “weak,” suggesting required capacity increases would not be achievable within two years without special measures.

Weapons listed as “requires attention” include Javelin missiles, HIMARS, and F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. The Harpoon missile system and 155 mm artillery ammunition were rated “weak.”

The FDD report said US military aid to Ukraine has had a limited impact on arms sales to Taiwan because most assistance involves older systems. The report said that weapons sought by Taiwan are “being acquired through contracts for new systems rather than the transfer of older systems already in the US military's inventory.”

The erosion of the US defense industrial base is largely attributed to a long-term decline in defense spending as a share of economic output following the Cold War.

World Bank data shows that US defense spending exceeded 9% of GDP during the 1960s arms race with the Soviet Union. The figure fell to 5.6% in the 1990s and declined further to 3.4% in 2024.