TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Pentagon said in its annual report to Congress released Wednesday that China may judge a full amphibious invasion as the only “prudent” option among four military scenarios to try to annex Taiwan.
In a section titled “China’s Military Options to Force Unification with Taiwan,” the report said Beijing continues to revise plans, per CNA. Over the past year, the PLA has exercised key elements of these options, including port blockades, strikes on maritime and ground targets, and drills to counter potential US military intervention.
Coercive actions
Beijing may seek to compel Taiwan’s submission by combining escalating military pressure with other instruments of national power. China could utilize a variety of disruptive, punitive, and lethal military measures in limited actions against Taiwan, in coordination with economic, disinformation, and diplomatic pressure.
Such measures may include cyberattacks, electronic warfare, or conventional strikes on political, military, and communications infrastructure to sow panic and erode public confidence. The goal would be to force Taipei into unification talks on Beijing’s terms.
China may see this approach as less costly than seizing the country outright. However, its success would hinge on Taiwan’s resilience, its determination to resist coercion, and support from the US and other partners.
The report said this strategy lacks the decisiveness of direct military action and carries serious drawbacks for Beijing.
Joint firepower strike
China could use precision-guided missiles and airstrikes against key government and military targets such as air bases, radar sites, and communications facilities. Such attacks would aim to degrade Taiwan’s defenses, paralyze leadership, or weaken public resolve.
The PLA could rely on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance to assess damage and support follow-up strikes. However, complex cross-service coordination could limit its ability to conduct timely assessments and rapid subsequent attacks.
Although the PLA has conducted joint operations exercises, joint firepower strikes require close coordination among services and operational units, and it may face challenges in effectively synchronizing multiservice strikes.
Blockade
China could impose maritime and air blockades to cut off Taiwan’s critical imports, sustaining operations for weeks or months while launching missile attacks. It could also seize outlying islands to pressure Taipei into negotiations or surrender.
At the same time, Beijing could employ cyber, electronic, and information warfare to further isolate Taiwan. Such efforts would also aim to shape international perceptions of the conflict.
Joint island landing campaign
An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would entail a “highly complex three-dimensional assault on Taiwan, involving multiple carefully coordinated operations.” The objective would be to breach Taiwan’s coastal defenses, establish beachheads that would enable the PLA to mass sufficient combat power to seize key objectives or territory.
Large-scale amphibious landing operations would be among the PLA’s most complex and difficult undertakings, requiring the establishment and maintenance of air and maritime superiority, as well as the rapid buildup and sustainment of forces. This approach would bring enormous risks for China, but it also presents “the most decisive potential option for forcing unification on Taiwan.”
While Beijing may prefer “less dramatic options,” the Pentagon said China is preparing for joint amphibious landing operations and “could determine that it is its only prudent option for compelling unification.”
The Pentagon said it remains unclear whether Beijing has fully assessed the viability of alternative approaches. However, the report suggested that the decisiveness of an amphibious invasion “will probably make it an increasingly more appealing option as the decision space for other options is constrained.”
