TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The US could lose a large-scale conflict with China over Taiwan unless it rapidly overhauls its military posture, a New York Times editorial has warned citing a classified Pentagon assessment and internal war games.

The “Overmatch” brief, prepared by the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment, is described as a multiyear review of US military power that shows how a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might unfold. It catalogs China’s ability to destroy American fighter planes, large ships, and satellites, and identifies critical supply-chain vulnerabilities.

In the editorial, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is quoted as saying that in the Pentagon’s war games against China over Taiwan, “we lose every time.” The Times board writes that the assessment reveals something even more troubling than the potential outcome of a war over Taiwan: a decades-long US overreliance on expensive, complex weapons systems as rivals field cheaper, mass-produced alternatives.

The board argues that the US defense industry can no longer produce traditional weapons such as missiles, ships, and aircraft at the speed and scale required for a prolonged conflict with a major power. It calls for rebuilding the industrial base and pushing allies like Japan and European countries to increase defense spending and pool resources to counter China’s growing military capacity.

The editorial notes that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027. While Washington maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on how it would respond to an invasion, the US position is it would help defend the country.

The debate over US readiness comes as President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) has unveiled a proposed special defense budget of about NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) over eight years to strengthen air and missile defenses. Lai has pledged to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP and to expand asymmetric capabilities such as missiles and drones, though his administration has not commented directly on the Overmatch brief.

Separately, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission warned in a report last month that China is rapidly improving its ability to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan. The more than 700-page study says the PLA has stepped up military activity around the country and deployed new amphibious platforms that could be used to shift from routine drills to a real invasion.