While Taiwan has reinforced its military power, strengthened its digital resilience, and bolstered economic development, one critical vulnerability remains largely unaddressed: energy security.

In 2024, 95.77% of the country’s energy was imported, a dependency that could prove catastrophic in the event of a Chinese blockade.

This vulnerability has reignited debate over Taiwan’s nuclear future. On Aug. 23, voters will decide whether to restart the Maanshan nuclear plant, contingent on safety approval. Maanshan was shut down in May, completing Taiwan’s nuclear phase-out under the “nuclear-free homeland” policy championed by the Democratic Progressive Party.

Supporters of a restart argue the plant would provide stable, low-emission power and strengthen national security in a crisis, when fossil fuel imports could be cut off entirely. Critics point to the risks of accidents, wartime targeting, and operational dependence. Public sentiment appears to favor the restart: a Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation survey found 66% of respondents support resuming Maanshan operations.

The issue has split along partisan lines. The DPP remains opposed, while the Taiwan People’s Party, which proposed the referendum, has the backing of the KMT. They argue the DPP’s renewable strategy has been costly and ineffective.

Under the Referendum Act, the measure will pass if “agree” votes outnumber “disagree” votes and account for at least one-quarter of eligible voters. If it fails, the same question cannot be raised again for two years. Taiwan has held two previous nuclear-related referendums: one in 2018 that supported using nuclear to complement green energy, and another in 2021 that rejected restarting the Lungmen plant.

These shifts in public opinion, combined with entrenched party divisions and political tactics, have only deepened uncertainty in Taiwan’s energy debate. Without reliable domestic power, the country’s military and economic defenses may be far less resilient than they appear.

A fragile energy system

Taiwan’s energy sector faces four main vulnerabilities: dependence on fossil fuel imports, blockade risk, a centralized grid, and rising demand from the AI and semiconductor industries.

The first two are linked. Taiwan heavily relies on fossil fuels, all imported by sea, leaving the country exposed to global price fluctuations. The government has shielded consumers from price increases, but this has driven up debt at the state-run Taiwan Power Company (Taipower). In 2024, coal accounted for 39.2% of electricity generation, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) provided 42.4%.

A Chinese naval blockade would quickly disrupt this model. Coal and oil reserves could last around six weeks and five months, respectively, but LNG — which is expected to remain Taiwan’s main power source — would run out in little more than a week. War game simulations suggest that blocking just seven or eight LNG shipments would put Taiwan under severe pressure.

Taiwan’s centralized power grid is another wartime weakness. Most electricity is generated in the central region and the south, while demand is concentrated in the north. Strikes or sabotage on key transmission lines could trigger nationwide blackouts, crippling civilian life and military operations.

Meanwhile, the semiconductor and AI sectors further strain demand. TSMC alone consumes around 9% of Taiwan’s electricity, and new AI data centers will push demand even higher. The Ministry of Economic Affairs projects national energy use will rise 13% by 2030. Blackouts in 2017, 2021, and 2022 showed how fragile the system already is.

These risks have pushed Taiwan to reassess every option. For some, nuclear power offers a way to reduce import dependency and stabilize supply.

Nuclear power is not the whole answer

Unlike renewable energy, which depends on weather conditions, nuclear power provides stable output. Many renewable providers in Taiwan connect to the grid through wireless systems, a potential vulnerability if communications are disrupted during a blockade. By contrast, nuclear power is transmitted through land-based cables.

But nuclear carries significant risks. Plants could be targeted in wartime, with catastrophic consequences. Taiwan would also remain reliant on imported fuel to sustain its reactors. The experience of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant underscores the dangers of operating such facilities during conflict.

Restarting the Maanshan plant will not solve Taiwan’s energy security problem. But it highlights the urgency of developing a comprehensive government response.

Building energy resilience

Taiwan’s current energy system leaves it vulnerable to both external coercion and internal weaknesses.

Political infighting has worsened the situation. Recent budget cuts, including NT$100 billion from Taipower, could undermine grid resilience and affect key industries.

Restarting nuclear power also risks diverting investment away from renewables. Taipei aims to produce 30% of its power from renewables by 2030, but after missing its 2025 target of 20%, that goal looks increasingly unrealistic.

Geopolitics further complicates the picture. Buying more US LNG could help reduce Taiwan’s trade surplus with Washington and appease Trump, but it would deepen reliance on imports.

Still, some progress has been made. Taipower is developing smaller regional networks to localize disruptions and prevent nationwide blackouts. Taiwan is also expanding offshore wind, the cornerstone of its renewable strategy. Offshore projects not only boost domestic energy resilience but also strengthen climate diplomacy and technical cooperation with the European Union — despite security risks from Chinese missile threats.

International collaboration will be essential. Nuclear power may have a role, but only as part of a broader resilience strategy. Diversifying imports and reserves, modernizing and reinforcing transmission systems, and integrating strong cybersecurity protections must all be central to the plan.

Taiwan’s clean energy goals, its role in global supply chains, its energy vulnerability, and the rising demands of AI and semiconductor production form a volatile mix. To secure its future, Taiwan needs an energy strategy that matches its strategic importance — and it needs it urgently.