TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – The Ministry of Education estimates that Taiwan’s elementary school population will decline 32,000 per year to dip below 1 million in 2029, reports said Saturday.
In a report presented Thursday, the ministry compiled estimates about student numbers from 2025 to 2040, per CNA. Birth statistics and numbers of graduates formed the basis for the report’s forecasts.
In 2024, Taiwan counted 1.2 million elementary school pupils, but over the next 16 years, the population is expected to decline at a rate of 32,000 per year to reach 689,000 in 2040.
On the secondary education level, the year of the dragon in 2012, seen as an auspicious time for giving birth, was leading to a stable level of students for the near future.
After numbering 591,000 in 2024, the secondary school population will rise to between 600,000 and 630,000, before a decline likely to start in 2033. By 2040, the number of students will likely drop to 404,000.
The ministry forecast the university population to fall from 1.07 million last year by an average of 9,500 per year to 922,000 in 2040. Schools are encouraged to show flexibility and while the size of classes may reduce the quality of education will be maintained, the ministry said.
Falling student numbers go hand in hand with the general population decline. Ministry of Interior data for July revealed a 19th month of decline to 23.33 million residents.
