TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Washington-based think tank, the Center For Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has conducted a series of wargames to simulate outcomes of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan.
The results and analysis of 26 different simulations were published on Thursday. Although enforcing a blockade to apply pressure on Taiwan may seem like a low-risk strategy to planners in Beijing, in almost every scenario, a blockade is likely to escalate into larger conflict, CSIS concluded.
In a report titled “Lights Out? Wargaming a Blockade of Taiwan,” CSIS found that enforcing a blockade of Taiwan is not a “low-cost, low-risk” strategy. To avoid costly miscalculations and total war, CSIS urged the US and Taiwan to boost deterrence and clearly demonstrate that a blockade is not a feasible option for China.
Every scenario, with or without foreign intervention, resulted in casualties on both sides and critical economic repercussions for Taiwan. If China employs the full strength of its military assets for the blockade, Taiwan would require US military assistance to ensure the continued delivery of critical supplies.
In most cases, Taiwan’s natural gas supply would be depleted within 10 days. Without resupply, oil and coal would run out between seven and 20 weeks, depending on the severity of the naval blockade.
A potential resupply operation from the US would require over 800 planes per day. Such a massive US resupply effort would only provide bare necessities and Taiwan would still face catastrophic economic and social outcomes.
Given Taiwan’s energy demands, if a Chinese blockade is strictly enforced, the country would likely face economic collapse within a matter of weeks. If China can not be persuaded to lift the blockade, pressure would quickly mount for Taipei to retaliate with targeted military strikes, leading to possible regional war.
CSIS recommended the US prepare for rapid response measures to a blockade or other escalatory acts by Beijing. On the diplomatic front, the US should discourage other countries from pressuring Taiwan to submit to Chinese demands in order to resume regular economic activity.
