TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China may be waging psychological warfare instead of preparing for an invasion, hoping to absorb Taiwan gradually while the West becomes increasingly polarized, according to a prominent China scholar.

In a Time article published Wednesday, Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, questioned the widespread assumption that China plans to invade Taiwan in 2027. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has cited 2027 as a potential invasion date, claiming Chinese leadership has ordered the military to be ready by then.

The year 2027 is seen as symbolic due to the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army. However, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has reportedly denied any intention to launch a military operation in either 2027 or the previously touted date of 2035, a year associated with various military modernization goals.

“Xi himself has talked plenty about reunification. But he has publicly avoided any hint of a timeline,” Brown writes. “For all the scary qualities attributed to China’s current leaders, one thing that does characterize them is caution.”

Brown argues that fear of failure could deter Beijing from launching a military campaign. “They are one uprising away from being ousted. A major military move that went wrong would be precisely the thing that might precipitate chaos,” he wrote.

Instead, China may choose to wait, betting that the West will continue to fracture under the weight of deep political polarization. Brown adds that Taiwan, too, is increasingly divided, citing recent Democratic Progressive Party efforts to recall opposition lawmakers.

“The old adage of blood being thicker than water will mean that China’s principal appeal for unity with Taiwanese — cultural commonality — will finally have traction,” he says.

As evidence, Brown points to a recent Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation poll showing that 49% of respondents viewed the US as more dependable than China, while 43% believed the opposite.

“The scenario of a slow reunification would have been pure fantasy even a decade ago. Today, it is a little more believable. And in the coming years, who knows, it might become a reality,” Brown concludes.