TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Confidence in Taiwan’s economy rebounded slightly in July as Nvidia’s return to the China market cheered investors, according to a National Central University report published Monday.
Taiwan’s consumer confidence index (CCI) rose 0.68 points to 64.38, snapping a months-long decline, per CNA. The biggest driver was a sharp gain in confidence around stock market investments, which jumped 5.15 points to 29.11.
Wu Ta-jen (吳大任), a researcher at NCU’s Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development, said renewed US approval for Nvidia’s H20 chips restored optimism in tech stocks like TSMC, which pushed past NT$1,000 (US$33) per share and helped lift the broader market above 23,000 points.
Still, the recovery remains fragile. Only two of six CCI sub-indices rose in July, while measures of domestic outlook, household finances, employment, and durable goods purchases all declined.
Wu warned that Taiwan’s tariff situation could worsen the economic mood. With Japan and the EU securing 15% tariff deals from the US, Taiwan may struggle to match those terms. Starting from a 32% base rate, even modest cuts would still leave Taiwan facing tariffs above 20%.
Taiwan is unlikely to offer concessions on the scale of Japan, Wu said, predicting a final rate between 20% and 25%. He cautioned that anything above 25% would deal a blow to the stock market and corporate bottom lines, especially if combined with forex losses from a stronger Taiwan dollar.
Housing sentiment also slipped. The index for durable goods purchases hit a four-year low at 96.57, while a separate gauge on housing market timing fell to a five-year low of 94.48.
The July survey, conducted by NCU in partnership with Fu Jen University, polled 3,088 adults by phone between July 18 and 21. The margin of error is ±2.0% at a 95% confidence level.
