TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Political analysts say the outcome of Taiwan's recall vote remains uncertain, with turnout expected to be a key factor.
Up to 31 KMT lawmakers are targeted in Saturday's recall campaign, with 24 facing votes after meeting legal thresholds. If successful, the ruling DPP could regain a legislative majority.
Polls closed at 4 p.m., and vote counting has started.
Raymond Kuo (郭泓均), a political scientist at the Rand Corporation, told the BBC that the ability of the DPP and KMT to mobilize their supporters will largely determine the result. He also identified the TPP as a potential wildcard.
Holding eight seats, the TPP is the third-largest party in the Legislative Yuan and holds a pivotal minority position, as neither the DPP nor KMT controls a majority. Kuo pointed out that in the 2024 general election, TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) received more votes than the party’s legislative list, suggesting strong personal appeal beyond party loyalty.
With Ko absent from the recall campaign, how his supporters cast their votes could significantly impact the final outcome, Kuo said.
National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center researcher Hsiao Yi-ching (蕭怡靖) said recall elections typically see lower turnout than general elections. While legislative races in 2020 and 2024 both saw voter participation above 70%, recent recalls have drawn turnout closer to 40–50%.
Hsiao said voters supporting the recall tend to be more motivated, viewing the process as an opportunity to change the political status quo through by-elections. Those opposed often approach it more defensively, aiming to maintain the current situation.
Unlike general elections, which are often driven by support for a candidate, recall participation tends to be motivated by dissatisfaction with the incumbent.
Liu Chia-wei (劉嘉薇), a professor at National Taipei University, observed that the TPP was initially reluctant to take a position on the recalls due to internal disagreements. However, the party eventually joined the debate, recognizing that remaining silent could undermine its visibility.
She noted that the recall results may have broader implications for the TPP’s future standing. If the KMT’s influence declines and the combined seats held by the KMT and TPP fall below the DPP’s total, the TPP may lose its role as a decisive minority.
Rising partisan tensions
Though the recall cases were initiated by citizen groups, party lines have become increasingly visible in the lead-up to Saturday's vote. President Lai Ching-te (賴清德), who also chairs the DPP, has framed the recall movement as a grassroots response to what he describes as legislative actions undermining national security.
One of the DPP’s campaign messages specifically targets KMT caucus convener Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁), who traveled to Beijing in April to meet with Chinese Communist Party official Wang Huning (王滬寧). During the visit, Fu emphasized cultural ties between Taiwan and China and called for “prosperity, peace, and cooperation.”
Fu and the KMT defended the trip as a peace-seeking mission reflecting the will of Taiwanese citizens.
Amid speculation that the DPP is preparing for possible by-elections, DPP lawmaker Lin Chun-hsien (林俊憲) dismissed the idea as premature. Lin said the party is focused on supporting candidates nominated by civic groups and committed to building an “anti-Communist legislature.”
KMT Chair Eric Chu (朱立倫), meanwhile, has condemned the recall campaign as a misuse of democratic tools, accusing the DPP of attempting to reshape the balance of power in the Legislative Yuan.
The TPP, whose legislators were elected via the party list system and are not subject to recall, has also voiced strong opposition. Party Chair Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) has appeared alongside KMT lawmakers at several campaign events.
While the recalls could reshape Taiwan’s political landscape, their long-term impact remains uncertain. Many of the targeted KMT legislators represent deep-blue constituencies, meaning that even if they are recalled, the subsequent by-elections could result in victories for similarly aligned candidates.
Still, observers say Saturday’s vote represents an unusual level of civic engagement and could serve as a barometer for public dissatisfaction with recent legislative developments, according to the BBC.
24 legislators: Who are they?
- Taipei City
In Taipei, Wang Hung-wei (王鴻薇) has centered her legislative work on budget oversight and proposing spending cuts. Recall organizers have raised concerns about her support for several high-profile bills backed by the KMT caucus, and questioned her position on cross-strait relations following her visit to China alongside KMT caucus convener Fu.
Lee Yen-hsiu (李彥秀) has highlighted her involvement in amending the Urban Renewal Act and introducing postpartum counseling services as key legislative accomplishments. Some critics argue that her voting record reflects broader caucus positions more than direct engagement with local constituent priorities.
Lo Chih-chiang (羅智強), who maintains a strong media profile, has drawn mixed reactions from voters. Some view his communication style as effective outreach, while others say his focus on short-form videos and partisan commentary overshadows his legislative work.
Hsu Chiao-hsin (徐巧芯), a visible figure among the KMT’s younger lawmakers, is known for her assertive style during legislative questioning. Recall advocates have accused her of misconduct during parliamentary sessions, citing concerns related to behavior, ethics, and ongoing legal disputes.
Lai Shyh-bao (賴士葆), who identifies as a financial policy specialist, continues to draw attention for his previous opposition to marriage equality, an issue that remains a subject of public debate.
- New Taipei City
In New Taipei, Hung Mong-kai (洪孟楷) has promoted several major infrastructure initiatives during his term and says he has helped secure over NT$30 billion (US$1 billion) in funding for the region. Critics, however, have noted his support for certain contentious bills, including a proposal to reduce the residency requirement for Chinese spouses of Taiwanese citizens to obtain national ID cards, from six years to four.
Chang Chih-lun (張智倫), son of longtime KMT lawmaker Chang Ching-chung (張慶忠), has faced criticism from recall advocates who claim his family's involvement in the construction industry has contributed to rising housing costs in Zhonghe District. They have also cited remarks he made about homeownership and pointed to his role in a failed budget reconsideration process, during which he supported cuts and freezes to housing subsidies, including NT$274 million cut and NT$4.1 billion frozen, that could have assisted up to 750,000 renters, according to organizers.
Liao Hsien-hsiang (廖先翔), the son of former New Taipei City Councilor Liao Cheng-liang (廖正良), entered politics following his father’s decision not to seek re-election amid a bribery investigation. In the legislature, Liao has repeatedly proposed cuts to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ budget, requesting greater transparency regarding Taiwan’s foreign aid, a position that has sparked discussion.
Yeh Yuan-chih (葉元之), a former city councilor, was recently accused by the family of a former employee of workplace bullying, an allegation he has denied.
Lin Te-fu (林德福), a legislator with over 23 years of experience, is also facing a recall push as organizers argue that his extended tenure representing Yonghe District has not translated into sufficiently active legislative engagement.
- Taoyuan City
Taoyuan, traditionally a KMT stronghold, shifted further toward the party in the 2024 elections. Six of the city’s legislators are facing recall votes on Saturday.
Niu Hsu-ting (牛煦庭) has drawn attention for his outspoken style. Recall organizers criticized a social media post in which he referred to the campaign as “garbage,” prompting a backlash. In response, Niu defended his remarks by emphasizing the importance of fact-based public discourse. He argued that the recall effort is politically motivated and aimed at weakening younger KMT legislators to reinforce a perception of the party as dominated by older figures.
Tu Quan-ji (涂權吉) has focused on agricultural and local development policies, including coastal ecological restoration in Guanyin and Xinwu districts and improvements to wastewater infrastructure. Organizers have questioned the breadth of his legislative record and say it largely reflects party positions rather than distinct local advocacy.
Lu Ming-che (魯明哲) has prioritized issues such as elder care, transportation, and campus safety. Recall advocates, however, say his positions on certain high-profile bills have not been articulated and have taken issue with his proposal to reduce funding for the “Cultural Points” program, which they argue could impact youth access to cultural resources.
Wan Mei-ling (萬美玲) has advanced legislation supporting protections for women and children, expanded public childcare resources, and called for improved mental health services in schools. Some critics contend that her close connections with neighborhood leaders and parent-teacher associations may limit alternative voices within her constituency.
Lu Yu-ling (呂玉玲), recognized for her work on education and constituency services, has been described by recall organizers as maintaining political influence through family ties. They also argue that she tends to align with party positions during legislative debates and has not taken a proactive stance on certain local development issues.
Chiu Jo-hua (邱若華), serving her first term, has focused on youth and industrial development. Critics say she has not publicly clarified her views on several controversial proposals and often votes in line with party caucus decisions, with limited independent commentary.
- Taichung City
Liao Wei-hsiang (廖偉翔) faced criticism earlier this year after live-streaming from the scene of a fatal gas explosion at a department store. Some accused him of grandstanding, while Liao maintained that he did not obstruct emergency operations and assisted with directing traffic. Liao also highlighted his legislative efforts over the past year and a half, including support for a NT$10,000 cash handout. He emphasized his opposition to both communism and Taiwan independence, stating his commitment to defending Taiwan regardless of external threats.
Huang Chien-hao (黃健豪) has focused on transportation and student safety in Wuri and Dali districts. Recall organizers criticized his backing of legislation that would raise the threshold for initiating recall campaigns, arguing that such measures conflict with public expectations. Huang responded by denying he took a public position on proposed changes to naturalization rules for Chinese spouses, calling the claim unfair.
Lo Ting-wei (羅廷瑋), who shifted political affiliation from the DPP to the KMT, has highlighted initiatives aimed at reducing financial burdens for families with premature infants and improving local education. Critics, however, contend that his party switch reflects inconsistency, and that his legislative focus has largely involved partisan disputes rather than core livelihood issues in his district.
- Other cities and counties
Hualien County’s Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁), who also serves as the KMT’s legislative caucus convener, is one of the central figures in the mass recall campaign. Fu previously served a prison sentence following a conviction for insider trading. Since returning to politics, Fu and his wife, Hualien County Magistrate Hsu Chen-wei (徐榛蔚), have played a significant role in shaping local political dynamics.
In Keelung City, Lin Pei-hsiang (林沛祥) comes from a well-known political family. He has promoted plans to modernize Keelung Port and enhance large-scale transportation infrastructure. However, civic groups have raised concerns over what they describe as a limited response to traffic safety issues and insufficient transparency in his family's asset disclosures, which is an issue often scrutinized by Taiwanese voters.
Hsinchu City’s Cheng Cheng-chien (鄭正鈐) has supported proposed amendments to the Hsinchu Science Park development act and worked to channel central government resources into improving local transportation and education. He was recently named a defendant in a criminal investigation involving allegations of receiving election support from Chinese sources and leaking government information.
Yunlin County’s Ting Hsueh-chung (丁學忠) won a seat in the 2024 election, flipping a long-time DPP incumbent. Ting has emphasized agricultural development and advocated for stronger disaster compensation for farmers. Recall proponents have criticized Ting for supporting legislation considered controversial and for what they describe as insufficient engagement with constituents. DPP lawmakers have also accused him of supporting budget cuts to the Ministry of Agriculture that they say have negatively impacted Yunlin.
In Taitung County, Huang Chien-pin (黃建賓) helped the KMT regain a legislative seat it had lost 14 years earlier, following coordinated campaign efforts and support from local factions. Huang has focused on expanding healthcare access in rural areas. Some voters have questioned his support for budget cuts to the Ministry of Health and Welfare, arguing the move conflicts with his stated priorities. Huang has said that, if he remains in office, he will continue efforts to assist local farmers with export and market challenges.
